***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 96 4 100 -1.5 -1.5 -2.0 0.9 50.8 52.1 -4.6 -1.6 0.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 93 7 100 -2.1 -1.9 -1.6 1.4 55.8 57.8 -3.8 -2.3 -0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 93 7 100 -0.1 0.7 -1.5 1.2 55.5 56.0 -2.7 -0.3 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 -5.0 -5.8 -4.8 0.2 47.2 47.9 -7.3 -5.2 -4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 -1.6 -1.8 -4.0 0.3 48.4 49.2 -4.2 -1.7 -1.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 92 8 100 -2.5 -3.1 -7.4 -0.4 44.1 45.1 -5.2 -2.7 -2.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 94 6 100 -2.2 -1.7 -1.9 1.3 54.0 55.9 -4.6 -2.3 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 -6.9 -7.7 -6.9 -0.3 45.5 45.6 -9.1 -7.3 -5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 -1.2 -0.4 -2.7 1.7 60.5 61.9 -3.9 -1.3 0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 -2.0 -2.1 -5.5 0.3 50.3 51.1 -4.0 -2.1 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 93 7 100 -1.9 -1.8 -4.1 0.9 53.8 53.9 -4.3 -2.0 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 -2.7 -3.0 -5.8 0.1 48.7 48.0 -5.9 -3.0 -1.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 -1.7 -1.9 -5.7 0.1 48.2 48.5 -5.0 -1.8 -1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 -1.1 0.0 -2.8 1.8 62.6 63.0 -3.5 -1.4 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 -1.7 -0.2 -1.6 1.8 61.8 64.3 -3.4 -1.9 -0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 92 8 100 -1.3 -1.5 -5.4 0.2 47.8 47.8 -3.3 -1.4 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 -2.9 -2.1 -1.7 1.6 56.7 58.9 -4.3 -3.2 -0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 -3.4 -4.3 -6.1 0.0 47.1 49.0 -6.4 -3.6 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 92 8 100 -1.7 -1.4 -1.6 1.5 57.3 58.9 -5.1 -1.8 -0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -5.6 -8.1 -8.8 -1.2 38.2 39.4 -9.1 -6.5 -4.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 94 6 100 -1.6 -0.6 -1.8 1.4 56.5 57.5 -4.4 -1.8 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 -2.7 -1.8 -1.4 1.7 60.7 61.5 -4.9 -2.9 -0.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 -1.9 -0.9 -1.7 1.6 60.6 61.2 -4.3 -2.0 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 -2.3 -1.4 -3.2 1.3 57.9 59.4 -4.1 -2.5 -1.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 92 8 100 -1.3 -1.9 -3.3 0.1 44.4 45.4 -3.3 -1.3 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 -2.1 -4.5 -7.1 -1.1 37.4 39.1 -5.5 -2.4 -1.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 93 7 100 -0.9 -1.3 -2.8 0.4 46.8 47.8 -2.4 -1.1 0.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 -2.6 -2.7 -3.9 0.7 52.0 53.4 -4.3 -2.8 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 -4.0 -5.7 -7.8 -0.4 42.5 45.2 -6.4 -4.4 -2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 94 6 100 -1.4 -1.4 -1.7 1.3 54.4 56.0 -3.9 -1.5 -0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------