***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2012.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 35.6 79.5 41.3 40.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 34.7 23.5 32.3 77.4 40.9 39.7 17.1 30.9 37.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 26.5 35.4 36.9 79.7 40.9 39.7 28.5 41.0 47.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 25.5 34.2 40.0 78.9 40.2 38.6 30.2 38.9 52.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 25.3 29.8 43.3 84.5 42.0 41.6 25.2 37.6 49.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 33.4 26.1 43.9 90.1 43.3 44.4 19.8 29.5 40.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 30.2 22.4 32.5 79.0 45.5 41.5 18.7 24.6 37.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 31.0 39.3 46.2 86.8 43.2 42.1 29.7 43.6 65.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 19.4 24.1 45.6 87.0 43.2 42.8 21.7 28.1 43.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 23.2 24.6 48.0 88.3 41.7 43.5 22.2 28.5 43.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 21.1 25.8 41.2 85.1 40.5 41.7 22.1 30.1 37.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 20.0 27.2 41.2 86.6 44.5 42.0 22.9 30.8 41.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 34.1 26.0 43.2 88.6 42.0 42.7 23.7 29.5 41.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 53.8 45.3 45.7 82.5 41.3 40.5 42.5 50.3 59.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 22.3 28.8 34.5 70.4 35.1 34.0 26.2 39.8 48.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 21.4 27.1 41.1 86.5 41.0 42.1 18.3 33.0 40.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 16.8 23.0 30.8 76.3 36.9 39.8 16.2 27.5 34.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 22.7 25.5 52.0 88.3 43.5 43.4 23.2 27.9 43.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 21.2 28.4 33.8 77.9 42.1 39.1 24.2 31.1 42.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 23.8 28.3 57.5 84.4 43.1 39.6 22.0 36.3 44.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 19.7 26.7 41.1 83.2 40.9 40.7 25.9 28.2 46.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 18.1 23.1 32.0 74.6 35.1 37.9 22.5 29.7 38.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 20.5 28.4 37.8 80.7 44.9 39.9 23.4 30.0 39.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 43.3 35.8 45.9 84.4 41.7 41.7 31.2 38.8 50.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 38.3 27.8 41.6 82.5 43.0 40.9 22.5 31.8 44.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 30.3 26.1 42.6 89.7 47.9 44.4 15.6 26.3 32.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 33.9 26.7 39.0 81.8 43.5 41.5 21.4 29.0 38.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 19.1 27.2 37.6 76.1 37.0 36.8 24.8 31.9 45.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 35.9 45.2 54.8 87.5 44.7 42.5 37.5 49.2 67.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 19.9 27.3 33.2 78.0 42.4 39.8 18.5 31.3 40.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------