***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 9.8 122.7 67.3 57.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.3 10.3 9.9 128.5 69.5 59.5 2.4 4.6 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.5 13.7 10.6 126.2 70.8 57.6 3.7 8.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 12.3 12.6 10.9 126.7 72.0 57.3 3.8 7.7 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 12.6 12.4 11.4 125.4 71.6 57.3 3.6 8.7 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.5 11.5 11.8 126.5 72.2 56.8 2.8 4.9 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 9.6 11.5 9.7 124.8 71.7 59.2 1.0 4.3 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.0 14.1 12.7 125.1 69.6 56.6 5.4 10.7 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 9.5 10.6 11.9 125.4 72.1 57.6 3.0 6.7 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.9 13.7 12.7 123.2 71.2 56.5 3.0 6.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.6 11.5 10.9 124.7 71.9 56.4 3.5 4.6 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.0 10.2 11.3 129.2 69.6 57.4 2.9 5.1 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.4 11.0 11.6 127.7 70.7 57.1 4.1 6.6 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.5 21.2 13.5 130.1 72.7 58.0 9.3 13.1 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.0 11.0 10.3 129.5 71.1 57.0 1.0 4.1 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.5 9.2 10.7 125.0 71.4 56.3 2.8 5.4 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 10.0 10.6 9.4 120.2 72.1 57.6 1.4 5.2 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.2 13.0 14.1 123.2 70.6 56.7 5.5 7.4 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.3 11.2 10.3 131.6 69.9 59.3 2.6 6.6 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.1 11.4 16.8 123.2 70.6 57.2 4.0 8.8 10.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 10.4 10.7 11.0 124.4 71.3 57.5 3.6 6.6 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 8.3 12.5 10.0 123.1 71.3 57.3 2.6 6.7 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.8 11.9 11.1 134.2 71.8 59.0 3.1 7.5 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.7 18.6 12.9 126.3 70.1 57.1 5.8 9.8 17.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.8 10.7 11.1 126.7 68.7 58.2 3.4 7.7 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 9.6 9.3 12.5 140.6 72.4 59.7 2.6 4.3 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 7.7 9.9 10.5 124.7 68.6 58.5 2.9 6.1 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.5 7.2 10.5 126.5 71.9 57.0 1.5 3.0 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.5 23.1 15.3 123.4 70.7 56.9 7.4 14.8 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.9 11.7 10.0 128.3 70.0 59.6 1.2 4.5 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------