***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 10.0 85.7 51.0 46.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.1 3.2 10.1 95.8 55.2 48.9 0.3 2.8 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.4 5.1 9.6 80.6 52.4 45.1 0.4 4.8 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.2 5.7 10.1 75.7 51.7 44.6 2.9 5.6 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 6.4 4.0 10.4 76.9 50.2 44.7 0.6 4.0 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.6 4.9 11.6 86.8 55.4 47.1 0.5 3.3 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.0 2.9 10.4 100.9 56.3 50.5 0.4 2.2 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 10.5 8.3 11.9 82.9 52.4 45.6 2.3 7.8 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.2 3.4 10.6 76.9 49.7 44.0 0.7 3.6 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.7 3.4 11.6 80.3 49.8 44.9 1.2 3.5 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 4.3 3.4 10.2 79.6 52.1 45.6 0.5 2.6 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.8 10.5 81.4 53.5 45.2 1.0 4.3 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.8 11.3 84.9 53.0 46.3 0.4 3.7 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 2.4 5.1 11.9 83.4 53.3 44.7 3.1 4.9 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.3 9.2 71.7 53.0 43.6 0.9 5.9 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 3.8 3.6 10.4 82.6 53.1 46.2 0.5 2.3 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 3.4 3.5 10.5 105.1 59.4 51.4 0.4 2.0 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 1.8 3.5 12.8 80.9 47.6 44.0 2.4 3.6 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.0 5.1 9.9 89.8 53.0 47.2 0.5 4.0 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.8 5.5 15.7 88.1 50.0 45.8 1.6 5.5 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.3 4.0 10.2 80.3 51.0 45.7 1.0 3.8 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 1.1 4.8 10.4 97.9 56.2 48.8 0.3 2.8 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.4 3.1 10.2 84.2 50.3 45.4 0.2 3.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 1.8 3.9 11.2 78.5 50.4 43.6 1.4 3.8 9.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 5.0 2.9 11.4 85.7 50.7 46.9 0.3 2.7 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 3.2 1.8 11.0 83.8 51.9 46.5 0.8 1.8 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.3 3.5 11.2 89.3 51.6 47.6 0.3 3.2 5.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.1 9.5 73.0 52.5 43.9 0.9 4.7 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 3.5 7.5 13.8 83.6 48.5 44.2 4.1 7.6 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.3 2.8 9.8 91.0 54.2 47.5 0.4 1.2 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------