***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2012.-06.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.1 59.1 39.5 36.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.0 4.7 6.3 51.7 40.3 35.7 3.0 7.2 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 13.1 6.8 9.5 66.6 41.7 39.9 5.9 9.5 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 6.6 9.3 11.9 73.0 40.6 40.4 5.9 11.9 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 15.5 12.4 13.4 82.4 45.4 44.9 8.8 13.2 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.9 8.5 12.8 91.1 51.7 48.4 5.6 8.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.9 5.4 6.2 51.7 40.4 36.3 4.1 7.9 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 18.2 16.1 13.9 85.5 49.8 45.7 9.6 16.1 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.8 9.5 14.3 87.5 48.0 47.4 7.7 10.1 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.0 11.9 15.0 89.8 50.2 47.9 4.8 11.9 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.1 9.2 12.8 82.4 45.6 44.5 6.9 9.9 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.8 8.5 12.5 84.6 48.5 45.4 5.4 9.9 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.7 11.7 12.8 85.0 48.9 45.7 7.4 12.4 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 18.0 12.0 12.6 74.6 44.9 43.0 8.0 16.5 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 3.1 3.6 10.0 63.0 39.8 36.2 2.2 9.3 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.7 9.1 13.0 86.0 48.5 46.9 5.7 9.3 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 7.8 4.4 5.6 49.0 41.8 35.1 4.3 4.8 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.0 10.9 15.7 89.8 53.2 48.6 7.4 10.6 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 11.1 6.5 7.4 57.3 41.7 37.9 3.4 9.5 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.2 8.6 15.7 80.3 48.2 44.7 5.0 10.3 17.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 13.2 8.2 11.6 74.1 43.9 41.6 6.3 9.5 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.8 3.8 6.3 51.7 41.2 35.6 2.7 6.1 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 10.8 8.1 9.8 68.8 44.5 42.3 3.4 9.3 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 17.8 16.6 13.4 80.7 48.1 45.0 7.9 16.8 17.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 5.1 6.1 10.2 65.4 40.7 38.2 4.8 9.8 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.8 7.5 12.6 88.3 47.9 46.6 4.6 7.8 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.5 4.7 8.6 59.8 40.8 37.3 4.2 6.4 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 4.6 9.7 11.7 73.2 41.9 40.8 3.0 10.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.5 15.4 16.0 87.9 51.3 47.9 8.8 15.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.9 4.8 7.0 54.9 39.9 36.9 3.7 6.8 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------