***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2012.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 4.4 1.3 62.1 62.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 3.7 4.6 4.3 1.6 68.2 65.4 2.0 3.3 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 4.9 6.0 4.6 1.3 65.8 62.8 3.1 4.5 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 0.9 1.2 2.6 1.3 65.2 63.5 -0.3 0.7 1.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 4.5 5.2 3.1 1.0 62.2 60.7 3.5 4.2 5.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.5 1.9 0.5 53.2 55.5 3.1 4.4 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 3.2 3.9 4.1 1.6 65.2 65.2 1.8 2.8 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.0 -0.1 2.4 0.4 52.4 55.1 -1.2 -0.3 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.5 5.9 3.9 0.9 60.6 59.5 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.9 3.1 0.6 55.4 56.8 3.2 4.6 5.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.1 3.0 0.7 59.6 57.8 3.6 4.9 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.0 5.4 2.6 0.4 54.3 54.8 4.3 5.3 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.4 4.5 2.3 0.3 53.3 54.1 3.7 4.4 5.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 5.8 6.3 4.2 1.0 63.3 60.5 4.1 5.2 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 4.0 6.0 3.0 1.5 67.7 66.1 2.1 3.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.3 2.6 0.7 57.9 57.5 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 3.3 3.9 4.1 1.7 69.8 66.2 1.6 2.9 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 2.9 2.6 2.8 0.4 50.7 55.0 2.0 2.5 3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 4.0 4.9 4.5 1.5 69.0 64.8 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 0.5 1.4 1.0 0.1 46.5 52.6 1.1 1.4 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.7 4.3 1.1 62.1 61.3 3.2 4.8 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 4.8 5.4 4.5 1.7 70.0 65.8 2.3 3.5 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.0 4.7 4.7 1.4 68.6 63.6 2.4 3.5 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.9 4.0 0.8 58.5 58.4 3.8 5.5 6.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 3.7 4.3 3.1 1.1 62.5 62.7 2.2 3.4 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.4 4.6 1.8 0.1 49.5 51.3 3.5 4.7 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.3 5.6 3.7 1.1 61.5 62.4 2.6 3.8 5.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 4.9 6.1 2.9 1.3 64.8 63.7 2.9 4.3 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.9 2.3 2.0 0.3 48.2 53.8 1.8 2.4 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 3.6 4.1 4.4 1.5 66.6 64.7 1.9 3.2 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------