***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 4.8 1.5 60.6 59.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 3.7 4.0 4.6 1.6 60.3 59.3 0.3 2.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.3 5.1 1.5 59.3 58.9 1.0 4.1 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -3.2 1.8 3.3 1.8 63.5 60.7 -3.3 -0.8 2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.9 3.8 1.6 59.8 59.6 2.2 5.0 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.3 5.6 2.7 1.4 60.7 59.1 2.7 3.4 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 0.3 4.0 4.4 1.6 60.3 59.4 0.1 2.0 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.1 0.6 3.0 1.1 60.3 57.0 -2.6 -0.4 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.5 4.5 1.4 59.3 58.7 2.2 5.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.7 5.7 3.7 1.2 60.1 57.5 1.6 4.8 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.9 3.6 1.4 61.3 58.7 1.8 5.3 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.5 3.3 1.2 60.6 57.5 1.9 5.0 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.7 2.9 1.2 60.3 58.1 1.8 4.7 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 5.3 5.6 4.5 1.1 57.2 56.8 1.5 3.9 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 0.8 5.0 3.5 1.9 64.4 61.5 0.5 2.9 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.7 3.3 1.5 61.3 59.2 2.6 5.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 0.4 3.5 4.4 1.6 60.4 59.5 0.5 2.0 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.8 3.8 3.4 1.0 59.6 56.0 1.3 3.2 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 3.7 4.6 4.8 1.5 59.3 59.0 0.2 2.3 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -0.1 3.3 1.5 0.8 58.5 55.0 -1.1 2.3 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.8 4.8 1.5 59.3 59.0 1.7 4.9 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 3.5 4.2 4.7 1.5 58.8 58.8 0.8 2.2 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 3.9 4.3 5.0 1.4 58.4 58.5 0.3 2.8 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.1 4.5 1.2 58.8 57.0 1.1 4.2 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 1.5 4.5 3.6 1.6 61.0 60.1 1.1 3.8 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.9 5.1 2.5 1.1 60.2 57.4 2.4 4.5 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.6 4.1 1.5 60.7 59.8 1.1 4.5 6.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.9 5.7 3.6 1.9 63.7 61.0 2.0 4.8 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -0.8 3.8 2.6 0.9 59.6 55.3 -0.4 2.2 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 3.5 4.2 4.7 1.6 59.7 59.2 0.0 2.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------