***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 4.6 1.2 58.6 59.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.2 4.2 4.5 1.6 63.0 61.2 1.8 3.5 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.7 5.3 4.9 1.3 60.4 59.5 2.5 4.4 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 2.6 1.6 2.9 1.3 61.5 59.6 -2.8 0.4 1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.4 5.0 3.4 1.1 59.5 57.8 2.9 3.9 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.7 1.8 0.4 53.4 54.0 2.4 4.4 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.0 3.9 4.3 1.5 60.4 60.6 1.6 3.4 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.3 -0.4 2.5 0.5 53.2 54.3 -2.5 -0.7 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.0 6.0 4.1 1.0 60.0 57.4 3.1 5.2 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.1 4.7 3.3 0.7 55.1 55.5 2.2 4.1 5.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.2 4.4 3.1 0.8 56.1 56.4 2.7 3.8 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.6 2.8 0.5 55.0 54.7 2.6 4.4 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 4.7 3.7 2.2 0.4 52.9 53.9 2.0 3.5 4.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.4 4.4 1.1 56.7 58.1 2.8 4.4 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 6.0 5.8 3.1 1.6 63.1 61.7 1.8 4.5 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.0 4.7 2.6 0.7 55.3 56.0 3.2 4.5 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.0 4.4 4.3 1.6 63.6 61.3 1.5 3.5 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 2.9 2.2 2.9 0.5 53.0 54.5 1.3 2.2 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 4.6 5.1 4.8 1.6 62.8 61.1 1.5 3.8 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.3 1.0 0.9 0.1 47.1 52.0 -0.2 1.2 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 4.8 5.5 4.5 1.2 60.2 58.3 2.8 4.1 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 5.7 5.1 4.7 1.6 63.5 61.3 1.7 3.7 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 1.9 4.0 5.0 1.5 61.7 60.4 1.8 3.4 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 6.0 6.2 4.2 0.9 56.9 57.0 2.6 5.2 7.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 1.9 3.7 3.1 1.1 59.1 58.5 2.1 2.9 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.4 3.6 1.9 0.2 52.2 52.8 2.4 3.4 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 4.2 4.0 3.7 1.1 58.3 58.4 2.3 3.3 4.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 6.5 5.6 3.1 1.4 61.6 60.2 2.3 4.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 3.4 2.6 2.1 0.3 49.7 53.2 0.8 2.6 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.0 4.2 4.6 1.5 61.5 60.6 1.6 3.5 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------