***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2013.-13.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 0.0 4.0 1.0 59.7 58.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 4.6 6.4 4.4 1.9 65.4 65.1 0.9 4.0 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 6.5 6.8 4.4 1.1 61.6 59.7 1.9 5.8 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 2.3 3.8 2.5 1.0 65.3 59.9 -2.0 1.4 3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.9 2.7 0.5 60.1 55.1 1.9 4.4 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 1.6 1.9 1.0 -0.9 40.0 41.6 1.0 3.6 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 3.7 6.5 4.1 1.8 63.4 64.8 0.5 3.2 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -1.2 1.1 1.9 -0.4 48.8 46.5 -1.0 1.3 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.3 3.4 0.3 57.2 53.4 2.0 6.0 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.8 2.6 -0.1 51.5 48.8 1.2 4.7 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.6 2.4 0.0 55.8 50.9 1.7 4.6 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.4 4.7 2.1 -0.4 48.9 46.5 2.2 5.1 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 1.8 2.3 1.4 -0.8 38.9 42.0 2.1 4.4 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 7.2 8.1 3.9 0.7 59.4 55.4 1.6 6.1 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 5.8 6.7 3.0 1.5 68.4 64.6 0.8 3.3 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.7 6.4 1.9 -0.2 52.0 48.5 2.4 5.2 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 3.7 6.4 4.4 2.1 70.4 67.6 0.3 3.0 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 0.0 2.0 2.3 -0.3 46.0 46.5 0.8 2.0 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 5.3 6.5 4.6 1.8 64.6 64.3 0.7 4.6 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -0.9 1.4 0.6 -0.7 39.7 42.7 -0.7 2.0 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.0 7.0 3.8 0.6 59.3 56.3 2.0 5.0 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 6.5 7.4 4.7 2.1 70.5 67.6 0.7 3.3 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 4.8 6.7 4.6 1.5 63.2 62.2 0.9 4.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 7.7 8.4 3.6 0.3 55.1 52.5 2.0 6.7 10.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 4.5 5.4 2.6 0.7 61.4 56.8 1.7 3.7 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 1.3 1.7 1.0 -1.0 32.5 38.6 1.8 4.3 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 5.1 7.0 3.2 0.7 59.1 56.8 2.0 4.3 7.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.6 8.0 2.7 1.1 65.9 60.2 1.9 3.0 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 0.0 0.4 1.6 -0.5 41.7 44.9 0.1 2.5 6.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 4.3 6.3 4.3 1.6 63.1 63.4 0.8 3.7 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------