***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2013.-13.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.5 0.6 56.0 54.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 -1.8 -1.2 -1.4 1.3 58.0 57.9 -3.9 -2.2 0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 0.2 1.4 -1.7 0.7 57.9 55.4 -2.3 -0.4 2.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -4.5 -4.1 -4.2 0.7 55.6 56.1 -8.0 -5.6 -2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 -1.6 -2.0 -4.1 0.1 52.4 52.6 -5.0 -2.2 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 -6.7 -5.8 -6.6 -1.1 36.6 41.7 -6.6 -3.9 -2.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 -1.9 -0.4 -1.5 1.3 59.0 57.3 -3.7 -2.4 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -9.4 -8.3 -6.0 -1.2 37.1 41.5 -8.5 -7.1 -4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 -4.0 -0.7 -3.4 0.0 50.7 50.7 -4.7 -0.7 0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 -5.0 -3.4 -5.2 -0.8 42.1 44.8 -4.6 -2.2 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 -1.8 -3.0 -4.7 -0.4 44.8 48.9 -5.1 -2.4 -1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 -5.9 -5.3 -5.4 -1.0 38.5 43.0 -7.1 -3.0 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 -5.8 -5.2 -5.7 -1.1 34.3 41.4 -5.3 -3.2 -1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 -0.2 -0.7 -3.4 0.4 48.2 52.1 -3.0 -0.5 0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 -2.0 -1.8 -3.4 1.1 58.9 59.0 -5.0 -2.6 -0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 -1.3 -2.8 -5.1 -0.4 42.0 48.0 -4.2 -2.0 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 -2.0 -1.3 -1.3 1.5 56.6 58.6 -4.0 -2.5 -0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 -7.7 -5.4 -6.0 -1.1 38.7 41.8 -6.5 -4.2 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 -1.5 -1.2 -1.4 1.3 58.2 58.1 -3.8 -2.0 0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 -11.7 -10.9 -7.7 -1.9 33.1 35.5 -11.0 -7.9 -5.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 -0.8 -1.1 -2.4 0.3 54.6 53.2 -4.4 -1.4 0.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 -2.2 -1.5 -1.2 1.4 56.5 59.0 -3.9 -2.6 -0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 -1.3 -1.0 -1.7 1.1 57.1 57.5 -3.7 -1.7 0.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 -1.2 -1.8 -3.9 -0.1 48.3 49.3 -3.7 -1.5 -0.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 -1.3 -1.3 -3.2 0.6 54.4 54.6 -3.8 -1.8 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 -6.0 -5.7 -5.9 -1.6 28.3 36.3 -5.2 -2.8 -1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 -1.9 -1.1 -2.3 0.6 54.0 54.3 -4.2 -2.7 0.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 -3.0 -2.1 -3.9 0.7 55.3 56.6 -6.2 -3.6 -1.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -7.6 -6.9 -6.8 -1.5 37.3 39.1 -7.9 -3.8 -1.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 -2.0 -0.4 -1.5 1.1 58.8 56.9 -3.2 -2.6 0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------