***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2019.-26.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 12.2 9.4 24.2 48.7 15.2 19.9 20.7 22.8 36.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 11.8 8.7 20.8 47.8 18.2 20.7 18.9 25.2 33.6 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 21.3 17.7 25.4 51.7 16.0 20.5 25.9 36.3 46.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 22.5 19.1 29.9 53.1 17.8 21.9 29.7 37.6 49.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 20.4 15.9 29.6 52.9 15.5 19.2 25.8 37.3 47.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 15.9 14.3 32.9 65.5 23.8 27.4 20.5 29.3 33.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 9.8 7.3 20.2 47.2 17.5 20.3 18.0 24.0 37.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 26.2 21.7 33.2 58.4 17.1 21.4 32.0 41.4 62.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 15.6 12.4 31.7 56.2 15.9 20.6 21.6 27.8 36.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 80 20 0 100 19.8 17.7 33.3 57.5 15.3 20.3 21.6 28.1 40.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 17.5 14.1 30.1 55.5 16.1 20.1 21.0 28.8 37.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 16.8 14.7 30.6 58.8 17.9 22.4 21.3 26.0 42.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 19.7 17.3 32.4 58.9 17.4 22.3 23.3 28.4 34.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 32.2 29.7 34.7 58.6 18.1 22.3 39.4 46.5 57.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 19.4 16.8 28.5 54.0 26.0 25.4 23.5 40.4 48.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 16.9 15.3 31.0 58.4 17.8 22.5 19.4 26.9 35.6 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 13.2 9.4 19.2 45.5 15.3 19.2 12.7 26.6 33.0 30 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 18.1 15.8 35.8 60.2 15.7 21.6 21.2 26.9 38.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 17.7 14.1 21.9 49.0 17.6 20.8 23.6 30.6 40.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 82 18 0 100 17.5 13.3 40.0 56.7 15.1 20.7 21.1 36.3 44.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 17.3 13.7 29.1 54.0 14.3 20.4 23.6 31.6 42.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 14.1 10.1 20.9 47.3 16.1 20.3 18.0 26.3 38.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 17.1 15.5 24.8 51.8 16.7 21.0 19.2 28.7 38.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 26.2 23.9 33.3 59.1 16.7 22.0 29.2 36.1 43.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 20.8 18.2 27.7 48.7 13.5 18.8 24.6 27.6 40.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 12.4 13.3 31.4 59.5 20.4 24.5 15.9 25.1 32.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 16.8 12.8 25.6 49.3 14.8 20.0 19.7 28.6 35.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 16.1 13.9 29.0 55.5 22.2 24.0 24.3 30.3 38.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 30.0 26.0 37.7 60.5 16.4 21.8 37.1 46.3 64.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 14.9 12.8 21.8 48.8 18.7 21.2 19.9 28.3 35.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------