***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2020.-26.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 2.5 4.7 7.6 64.3 43.4 35.3 2.7 4.9 9.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 1.7 3.8 6.6 63.7 45.3 35.6 2.0 3.8 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.3 5.8 8.2 70.3 44.5 37.5 4.1 6.7 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.2 7.3 10.3 76.7 50.7 39.6 3.3 7.1 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.7 3.7 10.1 75.2 46.9 39.2 2.2 5.2 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.0 5.2 10.5 83.4 52.2 42.7 2.1 4.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 1.9 3.4 6.5 62.6 44.1 34.7 1.8 4.5 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 5.2 8.5 10.6 77.4 47.4 40.2 4.9 9.6 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.0 4.2 10.4 76.6 48.2 39.7 2.7 4.3 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.4 6.0 10.8 77.8 46.9 40.4 3.1 6.5 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 1.7 3.4 9.7 75.8 47.3 39.6 1.6 3.7 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 1.9 3.9 9.7 77.6 48.9 40.4 2.2 4.3 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 2.5 6.0 10.2 77.5 48.2 40.2 2.9 6.6 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 6.1 12.1 10.9 75.7 46.5 39.9 9.1 12.9 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 1.5 6.2 10.6 81.0 56.4 41.2 0.5 3.7 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 1.3 3.1 9.8 77.9 49.1 40.4 1.4 3.3 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 1.6 3.1 6.0 57.5 42.3 32.8 1.8 4.6 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 3.4 6.8 11.5 80.4 49.9 41.1 5.8 6.8 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 2.7 4.9 7.0 65.6 45.2 36.4 3.1 5.8 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 2.9 5.8 13.3 76.3 48.3 39.2 4.1 5.9 11.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.1 5.5 9.5 74.3 48.1 39.1 3.6 5.7 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 2.2 5.2 6.4 59.4 43.6 34.1 2.9 6.8 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.4 6.1 7.9 68.9 43.8 37.5 4.5 7.6 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 5.4 11.9 10.5 77.5 49.1 40.1 7.8 12.3 17.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.1 3.7 8.9 66.6 42.2 35.8 3.3 4.1 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 1.3 3.4 10.3 77.9 47.8 40.3 0.9 3.5 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 2.1 3.1 7.8 63.1 41.5 34.6 2.4 4.6 7.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 1.2 3.5 10.3 80.2 55.0 41.0 0.4 2.9 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 6.3 12.3 12.0 79.8 50.0 40.5 9.1 12.4 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 1.5 3.6 7.0 65.0 45.4 36.0 3.0 3.8 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------