***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2020.-19.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 0.5 1.3 8.3 72.3 50.8 40.5 0.0 1.3 4.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.0 2.5 6.7 66.4 48.7 39.4 0.3 2.6 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 0.8 1.9 8.3 72.4 50.2 40.3 0.4 1.9 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 2.4 4.6 9.4 71.9 47.3 39.6 2.4 4.7 6.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 1.5 2.7 9.5 73.9 43.7 39.3 1.2 3.8 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 0.7 1.1 10.0 85.9 48.0 41.7 0.6 1.5 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 0.7 1.3 6.5 65.9 48.4 39.3 0.2 1.7 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 3.7 7.2 10.5 80.0 46.2 40.7 3.2 7.5 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 1.0 1.4 10.3 76.5 44.3 40.5 0.8 2.2 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 1.6 3.1 10.6 77.7 44.5 40.2 2.0 3.5 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 1.6 3.4 9.4 77.0 45.1 39.9 1.0 4.0 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 1.3 2.0 9.8 82.7 46.7 41.7 0.6 3.2 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.1 3.1 10.1 82.5 44.1 40.5 1.0 4.7 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 1.8 4.7 11.2 80.9 51.6 42.5 2.2 4.2 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.1 2.7 8.9 68.2 49.1 39.7 0.6 2.8 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 1.2 1.5 9.4 78.7 44.1 40.0 1.2 2.5 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 0.8 2.0 6.0 62.1 45.7 38.5 0.4 2.3 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 1.4 3.2 11.2 79.4 47.5 41.1 2.0 3.3 5.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 0.9 2.1 7.2 69.2 49.4 40.1 0.6 2.3 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 2.1 4.2 12.8 75.6 45.4 40.1 3.1 5.5 8.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 1.1 2.3 9.4 74.6 47.0 40.3 0.7 3.0 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 0.8 1.8 6.8 67.6 45.8 39.6 0.0 2.2 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 1.0 2.3 8.1 73.6 49.3 41.1 0.2 2.3 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 1.7 3.9 10.5 78.8 49.7 41.5 1.3 4.0 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 0.6 1.4 9.5 73.1 47.8 39.3 0.3 1.5 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 0.7 1.6 10.3 86.8 48.5 40.5 0.9 1.9 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 0.7 2.0 8.9 74.6 50.5 40.7 0.0 1.7 6.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 1.5 3.5 9.0 71.9 47.7 39.6 1.1 3.7 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 3.4 7.0 11.9 80.4 47.0 41.5 3.4 7.3 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 0.5 1.2 7.1 68.5 50.0 39.6 0.3 1.2 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------