***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2020.-12.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 1.6 1.8 7.1 55.6 38.5 34.8 1.0 3.6 4.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.3 2.3 6.5 58.2 39.8 35.2 1.0 3.1 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.7 3.6 7.8 60.6 41.7 37.0 2.5 5.7 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.4 3.5 8.9 59.9 39.7 35.9 1.8 5.1 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 3.0 4.5 8.4 58.1 38.3 33.7 4.1 6.9 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 1.6 3.4 10.9 82.5 48.1 40.9 1.5 3.9 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.7 2.1 6.3 57.5 41.0 34.9 1.3 4.0 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 3.6 6.3 10.3 68.0 42.4 36.5 3.5 7.9 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 1.6 2.7 9.4 63.4 39.2 35.6 1.6 3.9 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.2 3.9 9.9 66.8 41.7 35.7 2.0 5.1 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 2.0 3.4 9.4 64.4 41.3 35.6 0.8 4.8 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 1.5 2.7 9.7 68.7 43.0 36.9 1.6 3.5 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 2.2 3.8 10.2 71.3 41.0 37.8 1.5 4.9 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 3.8 5.2 11.1 72.5 44.1 38.3 3.2 7.8 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 1.7 2.6 8.3 58.1 43.0 34.8 0.9 4.1 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 1.9 3.5 10.3 73.3 43.2 39.8 1.0 3.8 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.0 3.5 6.3 57.8 42.9 35.5 1.9 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 2.2 2.9 11.2 72.5 43.8 38.4 2.2 4.8 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.6 2.4 6.8 58.8 39.8 35.3 1.7 3.6 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 2.6 2.7 11.8 63.2 41.3 34.9 1.8 5.3 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.2 2.6 8.8 62.0 38.1 37.1 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 1.4 2.7 6.7 58.1 42.8 35.0 1.9 4.2 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.1 2.6 7.7 61.6 40.4 36.4 2.4 4.2 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.8 4.7 10.9 73.6 45.2 39.6 3.0 6.7 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 2.0 1.7 7.8 53.3 34.8 32.6 1.4 4.2 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 1.7 2.4 9.4 66.0 39.5 34.5 1.8 4.3 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 1.8 1.7 7.6 56.9 38.1 34.8 1.1 4.2 7.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.0 1.2 8.8 63.4 43.0 35.8 0.2 2.2 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 2.7 4.2 11.8 72.0 43.9 38.4 2.7 4.9 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 1.5 2.6 6.7 57.9 40.1 35.1 1.3 3.3 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------