***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2019.-05.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 92 8 0 100 0.4 0.0 1.3 9.2 10.2 8.2 3.8 5.4 10.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 0.5 0.0 0.9 8.0 12.4 8.2 3.0 6.6 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 94 6 0 100 1.2 0.2 1.2 8.8 8.9 6.8 5.6 8.6 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 96 4 0 100 3.4 0.6 1.2 8.4 6.1 6.0 5.8 10.3 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 96 4 0 100 1.9 0.7 1.7 10.8 6.8 6.8 7.4 9.1 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 95 5 0 100 1.7 1.1 1.4 11.3 7.8 8.0 4.0 6.9 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 1.2 0.2 0.9 7.9 12.8 8.3 2.9 8.1 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 96 4 0 100 5.9 1.7 1.8 11.9 7.0 7.2 8.2 14.4 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 97 3 0 100 1.5 0.0 1.5 10.5 6.7 6.5 5.4 8.1 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 96 4 0 100 1.7 0.4 1.9 12.4 6.3 7.0 5.8 9.3 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 95 5 0 100 3.5 0.0 1.6 11.1 6.3 6.8 5.5 9.9 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 97 3 0 100 1.8 0.6 1.4 10.2 7.2 6.7 5.0 7.9 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 93 7 0 100 2.7 1.2 1.9 12.4 8.4 8.5 6.4 9.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 94 6 0 100 1.5 0.0 1.5 9.6 6.2 5.9 6.6 11.2 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 97 3 0 100 0.2 0.0 0.7 5.5 10.1 6.4 1.3 7.1 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 95 5 0 100 2.3 0.1 1.5 10.1 7.1 7.0 5.9 8.2 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 92 8 0 100 0.9 0.3 0.9 7.7 12.1 8.2 3.6 5.4 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 94 6 0 100 1.6 0.3 1.9 12.1 6.3 6.5 2.8 8.5 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 93 7 0 100 1.5 0.2 1.0 8.2 10.7 7.4 3.9 8.4 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 95 5 0 100 2.7 1.2 2.1 12.3 7.6 7.2 4.3 7.0 18.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 1.8 0.1 1.4 9.7 7.2 6.6 4.8 7.6 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 93 7 0 100 0.5 0.0 1.0 8.3 10.3 8.0 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 95 5 0 100 1.3 0.1 1.1 8.2 8.7 6.4 2.3 8.2 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 94 6 0 100 1.1 0.0 1.5 10.0 7.0 6.0 5.7 10.7 16.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 95 5 0 100 1.1 0.0 1.6 10.2 8.0 7.5 5.6 10.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 1.7 0.6 1.4 10.5 8.7 8.1 4.7 6.5 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 92 8 0 100 1.0 0.1 1.4 9.8 10.2 8.5 4.0 7.1 11.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 96 4 0 100 1.2 0.0 0.9 7.1 8.5 6.1 2.6 8.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 94 6 0 100 5.1 1.2 2.0 12.1 6.6 6.6 8.5 12.6 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 91 9 0 100 0.7 0.0 1.0 8.4 11.8 8.2 4.1 6.7 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------