***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2020.-19.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 3.8 3.8 4.6 2.3 62.6 64.8 2.1 3.0 4.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 3.3 4.4 4.9 2.7 64.7 65.9 2.0 2.5 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 4.0 5.1 5.0 2.3 61.6 63.6 2.4 3.2 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 3.1 2.4 2.3 2.4 66.3 66.0 -2.8 0.9 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 6.1 5.1 3.1 2.0 62.7 63.6 2.6 3.2 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.9 1.8 1.0 57.0 56.8 2.6 4.1 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 3.3 3.5 4.8 2.7 65.9 66.0 1.8 2.6 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 0.5 1.1 2.5 1.4 58.6 59.6 -2.4 -0.3 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.4 5.5 3.8 1.9 60.0 61.9 3.0 4.3 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 4.3 5.0 3.1 1.5 58.0 59.9 2.3 3.3 5.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 6.5 5.7 3.1 1.8 61.2 61.7 2.5 3.3 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.0 2.9 1.5 59.1 60.1 2.7 4.6 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 4.2 3.6 2.2 1.1 58.2 58.1 2.3 3.2 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 4.7 5.7 4.3 1.9 60.5 61.5 2.3 3.6 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 6.2 5.6 3.2 2.5 66.3 66.3 1.9 4.8 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 6.6 4.9 2.6 1.6 61.1 60.7 3.0 4.1 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 3.5 4.3 4.9 2.7 65.7 66.4 1.3 3.0 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 2.2 2.2 3.1 1.4 57.3 59.0 1.0 1.6 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 3.5 4.8 5.0 2.6 63.5 65.1 1.7 2.6 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.1 57.7 58.2 -0.6 0.9 4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 4.4 4.8 4.4 2.0 60.1 62.8 2.7 3.6 6.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 3.5 4.8 5.0 2.6 64.3 66.1 1.4 2.7 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 3.3 3.8 5.2 2.3 62.3 63.7 1.6 2.5 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 5.3 6.5 4.1 1.8 59.4 60.9 2.4 4.2 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 5.0 3.8 3.3 2.2 63.8 65.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 4.1 5.2 2.2 1.1 59.4 58.8 2.6 3.2 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 4.2 3.9 4.1 2.2 61.9 64.4 2.2 3.5 4.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 6.6 5.9 2.6 2.3 64.5 64.8 2.5 4.9 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.9 3.3 2.5 1.3 56.9 58.4 0.5 2.2 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 3.4 4.4 4.8 2.6 64.7 65.7 1.9 2.7 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------