***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2020.-12.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 7.4 9.4 6.1 3.1 72.6 72.1 1.4 3.4 8.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 6.7 8.3 6.4 3.5 74.4 73.7 1.1 3.1 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 8.0 9.5 6.7 3.3 72.8 72.1 2.1 4.7 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 4.4 7.0 4.7 4.2 85.4 79.8 -2.0 0.8 3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 7.8 9.3 5.2 3.3 78.1 74.2 1.8 3.6 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 7.4 8.7 4.1 3.0 77.4 71.8 1.4 3.0 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 5.4 6.8 6.2 3.4 73.4 73.6 0.8 2.3 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 2.4 3.1 4.8 3.2 79.1 73.1 -1.3 0.6 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 9.3 10.6 6.1 3.4 76.5 74.3 2.1 4.8 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 8.1 8.6 5.2 3.1 75.8 71.8 1.3 3.4 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 8.6 10.2 5.5 3.3 78.5 73.5 1.7 3.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 10.0 11.9 5.2 3.3 79.6 74.3 1.7 4.6 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 8.1 8.7 4.7 2.6 74.8 69.5 2.1 4.6 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 9.9 11.2 6.7 3.5 76.3 73.0 1.9 6.3 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 7.8 12.3 6.4 4.5 87.2 82.4 1.2 2.9 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 9.6 10.9 4.9 3.2 78.1 73.0 2.5 5.3 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 6.0 8.0 6.4 3.5 76.4 74.8 0.7 2.3 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 4.6 5.5 5.1 3.2 77.0 71.8 0.8 1.9 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 7.5 9.0 6.6 3.4 75.0 73.2 0.9 3.8 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 4.2 4.7 3.6 2.8 77.0 70.8 -1.4 2.6 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 8.0 10.2 6.5 3.2 74.4 72.8 2.3 3.9 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 7.1 9.2 6.6 3.5 76.2 74.2 0.8 2.7 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 6.0 8.1 6.7 3.4 75.3 72.6 1.1 2.7 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 9.7 11.0 6.4 3.3 75.8 72.4 2.1 6.7 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 6.6 8.0 5.2 3.2 76.2 73.4 1.7 2.8 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 6.8 7.2 4.1 2.6 76.9 71.3 1.6 4.5 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 7.4 9.3 5.6 3.0 74.0 71.9 2.4 3.4 7.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 8.9 12.2 5.6 4.3 85.3 79.7 1.2 3.0 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 6.5 7.4 4.5 3.0 76.8 71.1 -0.3 3.1 6.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 6.0 7.8 6.3 3.3 72.9 73.1 1.0 2.5 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------