***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2019.-05.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 92 8 100 4.4 5.8 4.3 1.2 57.0 57.4 0.7 4.2 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 4.2 5.2 4.8 1.8 61.5 62.1 1.1 3.9 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 5.9 7.5 4.9 1.4 59.5 59.8 2.2 5.6 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 3.8 4.7 3.3 2.8 77.6 75.6 -1.5 1.0 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 5.2 6.4 3.2 1.3 60.5 60.7 2.2 4.8 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 4.9 5.4 2.1 1.4 61.8 61.6 2.0 4.4 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 4.1 5.4 4.5 1.7 59.9 61.3 0.7 3.9 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 -0.9 0.7 3.0 1.6 64.1 63.6 -2.3 -1.2 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 6.0 7.5 4.4 1.5 60.6 61.5 3.3 5.6 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 5.5 6.1 3.2 1.2 59.3 59.5 2.9 5.1 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 5.1 6.8 3.7 1.2 59.9 59.8 2.4 4.7 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 5.6 7.3 3.5 1.6 64.3 63.8 3.6 5.1 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 93 7 100 4.7 6.0 2.9 0.6 56.2 54.4 1.7 4.4 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 46 54 100 8.0 8.1 5.2 1.8 64.8 64.1 2.8 5.8 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 7.8 8.7 6.1 3.5 85.9 82.3 1.0 4.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 92 8 100 5.4 7.5 3.0 1.2 61.3 59.8 2.8 4.9 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 3.8 5.4 4.9 2.1 64.7 65.8 0.8 3.5 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 91 9 100 3.2 3.8 3.0 1.4 61.6 61.2 1.2 2.9 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 5.0 6.4 4.9 1.7 61.2 61.6 0.7 4.7 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 2.7 4.0 1.9 1.6 64.0 64.0 -1.5 2.2 4.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 5.4 7.3 4.9 1.4 60.3 61.1 3.0 5.0 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 4.5 6.4 5.3 2.2 67.0 66.1 0.9 4.1 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 5.1 5.6 4.9 1.6 59.7 61.3 0.8 4.7 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 7.3 8.1 4.6 1.5 61.4 61.3 3.4 6.9 8.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 90 10 100 3.9 5.8 3.7 1.4 60.8 61.2 1.5 3.6 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 92 8 100 4.2 5.8 1.9 0.7 58.0 55.9 2.3 3.9 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 92 8 100 5.7 6.8 4.0 1.2 58.1 58.4 1.5 5.4 8.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 7.9 8.8 4.6 3.0 79.1 76.4 2.3 5.4 7.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 2.2 4.2 2.7 1.7 66.5 64.7 0.2 1.6 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 4.0 5.5 4.7 1.5 59.7 60.1 1.1 3.7 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------