***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-26.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 38.1 100.9 54.5 50.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 15.6 30.8 36.9 103.9 58.3 51.3 18.9 25.2 33.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 39.8 39.5 39.3 102.0 56.7 51.1 25.9 36.3 46.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 27.2 48.6 44.6 107.2 60.7 54.5 29.7 37.6 49.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 40.6 40.1 42.0 98.0 51.6 49.4 25.8 37.3 47.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 32.4 30.4 41.1 96.1 53.8 48.6 20.5 29.3 33.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 14.9 27.4 36.2 102.5 56.3 50.8 18.0 24.0 37.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 49.1 43.7 45.6 95.1 53.7 47.6 32.0 41.4 62.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 31.8 27.9 42.0 94.4 51.6 47.1 21.6 27.8 36.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 33.0 28.2 45.1 94.7 52.0 47.3 21.6 28.1 40.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 32.7 29.3 39.7 94.5 51.1 47.0 21.0 28.8 37.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 32.3 27.2 39.8 94.0 52.2 47.1 21.3 26.0 42.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 32.5 28.4 40.4 94.6 50.1 47.2 23.3 28.4 34.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 50.2 54.2 48.1 103.5 56.9 52.4 39.4 46.5 57.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 49.9 49.1 48.2 122.4 67.5 62.1 23.5 40.4 48.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 33.1 27.2 39.3 96.7 50.9 48.6 19.4 26.9 35.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 17.2 30.0 37.2 107.9 60.1 53.3 12.7 26.6 33.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 21.1 29.2 50.4 97.8 54.1 48.9 21.2 26.9 38.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 21.6 31.5 37.7 103.5 57.6 51.5 23.6 30.6 40.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 24.6 39.4 62.7 102.5 58.1 51.0 21.1 36.3 44.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 22.6 32.1 40.4 97.9 53.7 48.7 23.6 31.6 42.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 30.5 29.5 38.7 106.4 57.0 53.3 18.0 26.3 38.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 21.3 30.2 39.8 102.5 54.1 51.4 19.2 28.7 38.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 40.1 39.8 46.0 99.8 56.2 49.8 29.2 36.1 43.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 34.2 32.7 43.3 101.5 57.3 50.5 24.6 27.6 40.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 28.9 25.6 42.4 99.4 54.6 49.5 15.9 25.1 32.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 21.0 29.9 40.7 99.5 54.3 49.7 19.7 28.6 35.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 34.6 35.8 44.8 111.6 61.5 57.3 24.3 30.3 38.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 55.2 51.2 55.4 101.0 56.5 50.6 37.1 46.3 64.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 18.8 32.7 37.0 102.3 57.1 50.8 19.9 28.3 35.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------