***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2014.-26.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.9 91.3 57.6 47.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.9 5.8 8.0 99.2 60.6 50.1 2.0 3.8 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.6 8.8 7.8 90.1 56.9 46.6 4.1 6.7 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.4 8.3 8.4 93.6 54.5 46.8 3.3 7.1 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.1 6.6 8.3 85.9 52.5 44.8 2.2 5.2 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.5 6.9 8.4 92.2 55.9 45.9 2.1 4.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.3 7.7 8.1 102.1 64.0 51.5 1.8 4.5 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.7 10.9 9.1 84.3 52.9 43.7 4.9 9.6 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.6 4.4 8.3 81.9 51.1 43.8 2.7 4.3 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.9 6.9 9.1 83.7 52.8 43.9 3.1 6.5 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 1.8 3.9 8.0 85.7 51.8 44.3 1.6 3.7 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.1 5.1 8.1 86.5 53.1 44.4 2.2 4.3 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.3 7.4 8.3 90.8 56.2 46.0 2.9 6.6 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.0 13.3 9.4 90.7 54.4 45.7 9.1 12.9 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.6 9.7 8.2 99.0 62.0 47.9 0.5 3.7 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 5.8 4.1 8.0 90.6 53.8 46.1 1.4 3.3 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.0 8.6 8.4 110.3 66.6 52.3 1.8 4.6 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.6 10.1 86.5 56.2 45.5 5.8 6.8 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.9 9.4 7.8 94.2 58.3 48.3 3.1 5.8 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.4 7.9 12.4 86.8 56.7 46.0 4.1 5.9 11.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.1 5.9 8.1 86.2 51.8 45.2 3.6 5.7 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.6 8.6 8.2 101.8 61.6 50.0 2.9 6.8 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.5 8.2 7.7 88.5 55.9 46.0 4.5 7.6 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.5 14.4 9.0 88.3 55.4 45.8 7.8 12.3 17.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.2 7.1 9.1 95.0 57.3 48.0 3.3 4.1 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 1.8 3.9 8.4 92.1 53.9 45.9 0.9 3.5 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.4 6.0 8.8 94.9 60.3 48.3 2.4 4.6 7.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 6.1 4.9 8.1 94.5 57.5 47.0 0.4 2.9 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.3 13.5 11.1 87.4 55.6 45.8 9.1 12.4 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.8 6.3 7.9 95.7 59.6 49.0 3.0 3.8 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------