***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2014.-19.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 11.0 126.4 69.3 57.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.3 6.7 11.0 130.8 69.4 58.3 0.3 2.6 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 7.9 9.3 11.5 128.4 70.3 59.7 0.4 1.9 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.7 12.4 118.7 66.9 57.6 2.4 4.7 6.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 1.9 4.4 11.8 111.1 64.2 56.5 1.2 3.8 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 3.5 5.3 12.0 110.6 65.8 55.9 0.6 1.5 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.3 3.5 10.7 125.4 67.2 56.5 0.2 1.7 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.8 10.9 12.9 114.9 65.6 57.0 3.2 7.5 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 1.0 5.3 12.1 109.9 65.1 56.0 0.8 2.2 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.0 7.5 12.9 111.7 65.6 56.5 2.0 3.5 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.3 5.4 11.0 107.6 62.6 55.4 1.0 4.0 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 4.3 6.2 11.0 112.4 64.6 56.2 0.6 3.2 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.9 8.0 11.2 110.1 62.5 55.1 1.0 4.7 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 11.6 9.8 14.4 128.1 69.9 61.3 2.2 4.2 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 3.9 7.5 13.3 126.9 71.4 58.7 0.6 2.8 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 3.8 4.1 10.9 109.9 61.6 55.4 1.2 2.5 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.4 6.8 11.0 131.4 70.6 57.2 0.4 2.3 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 5.0 5.8 14.6 118.3 67.0 58.0 2.0 3.3 5.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 4.7 11.0 11.4 133.3 71.3 59.7 0.6 2.3 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.3 8.4 17.8 124.8 67.1 58.1 3.1 5.5 8.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 7.8 9.1 11.6 117.2 69.5 57.5 0.7 3.0 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 3.9 8.5 11.5 132.8 72.4 58.8 0.0 2.2 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 8.6 6.9 12.0 131.7 70.6 60.8 0.2 2.3 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 8.0 7.9 13.5 123.3 69.4 59.8 1.3 4.0 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 0.8 9.4 12.2 119.3 69.7 56.4 0.3 1.5 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 3.1 5.5 11.7 117.3 66.9 56.9 0.9 1.9 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 3.6 6.6 11.6 122.6 67.4 56.3 0.0 1.7 6.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 4.6 6.9 12.6 120.7 68.6 58.2 1.1 3.7 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.2 13.1 16.0 124.5 69.1 59.1 3.4 7.3 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 3.2 8.0 10.9 129.7 68.7 58.6 0.3 1.2 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------