***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2014.-12.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 0.0 10.6 137.2 71.9 60.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 8.0 9.5 10.7 154.7 73.9 63.3 1.0 3.1 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.2 11.0 11.0 141.3 72.1 61.8 2.5 5.7 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 9.6 11.7 12.3 147.2 74.8 63.0 1.8 5.1 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.9 10.3 11.3 130.9 68.4 58.9 4.1 6.9 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 5.4 5.4 11.2 112.3 66.0 56.4 1.5 3.9 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 7.8 9.1 10.4 150.5 72.9 61.4 1.3 4.0 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 9.3 12.3 12.9 128.6 68.4 58.8 3.5 7.9 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.2 8.8 11.3 126.4 66.6 57.5 1.6 3.9 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 7.3 11.2 12.2 124.7 67.2 57.5 2.0 5.1 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 6.2 8.1 10.5 123.4 69.4 57.7 0.8 4.8 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 4.7 8.3 11.1 123.3 67.5 58.1 1.6 3.5 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 6.2 5.6 10.8 116.6 66.7 57.2 1.5 4.9 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 9.8 17.2 13.3 142.2 76.9 62.5 3.2 7.8 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 9.2 13.2 13.8 171.9 81.3 68.3 0.9 4.1 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 5.1 9.2 10.5 123.9 68.0 58.6 1.0 3.8 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 9.7 11.8 10.9 164.2 77.9 64.1 1.9 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 6.4 8.6 13.9 128.7 70.1 58.7 2.2 4.8 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 8.5 10.6 10.9 152.4 74.1 63.5 1.7 3.6 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 7.2 15.3 18.3 145.2 75.6 61.3 1.8 5.3 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.2 9.4 10.9 131.7 70.1 59.1 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 9.1 12.3 11.6 163.0 79.2 65.2 1.9 4.2 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 9.6 9.6 11.2 146.1 73.9 62.8 2.4 4.2 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 7.9 10.9 12.6 133.5 72.3 59.7 3.0 6.7 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.2 12.3 11.9 137.6 71.0 59.8 1.4 4.2 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.9 7.4 12.0 126.8 70.5 60.7 1.8 4.3 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.6 9.4 11.3 134.0 69.1 59.6 1.1 4.2 7.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 7.6 11.1 12.6 152.4 76.1 64.3 0.2 2.2 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 7.8 16.8 15.4 133.1 71.4 59.4 2.7 4.9 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 8.4 7.0 10.6 147.8 71.0 62.3 1.3 3.3 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------