***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.6 67.8 44.5 42.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.2 5.0 7.2 59.5 42.4 39.8 3.0 6.6 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.2 6.7 9.0 68.6 44.0 42.3 5.6 8.6 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 12.7 10.3 11.4 83.0 50.4 47.1 5.8 10.3 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.8 8.5 10.7 76.4 45.4 43.9 7.4 9.1 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.2 6.6 9.4 73.9 44.2 43.5 4.0 6.9 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.1 5.2 7.0 58.7 41.9 39.1 2.9 8.1 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 9.3 10.9 10.7 67.4 41.4 40.1 8.2 14.4 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.8 6.5 10.3 71.4 40.1 41.6 5.4 8.1 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.6 7.3 10.9 70.7 42.0 41.5 5.8 9.3 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 6.1 9.0 10.2 73.2 45.1 42.9 5.5 9.9 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.4 6.7 9.7 67.9 41.7 40.2 5.0 7.9 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.2 7.2 10.0 71.4 39.6 41.3 6.4 9.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.9 9.4 11.1 71.0 43.3 43.1 6.6 11.2 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 9.4 11.3 13.0 102.5 60.3 55.2 1.3 7.1 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.9 6.9 9.9 73.8 44.2 43.2 5.9 8.2 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.7 4.5 6.9 58.1 42.6 39.6 3.6 5.4 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.7 7.4 11.9 70.9 40.8 41.9 2.8 8.5 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.5 6.2 7.7 61.7 43.0 40.3 3.9 8.4 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.6 6.9 14.2 71.3 44.5 42.2 4.3 7.0 18.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.0 5.7 9.8 71.8 40.7 42.5 4.8 7.6 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.5 4.6 7.4 58.8 41.2 39.1 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.4 8.0 8.8 66.5 44.9 42.1 2.3 8.2 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.2 8.9 10.9 70.3 41.4 42.0 5.7 10.7 16.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 5.0 8.3 10.2 71.2 43.3 43.0 5.6 10.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.6 5.9 10.4 73.2 46.4 41.9 4.7 6.5 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.2 4.7 8.9 65.5 42.3 40.9 4.0 7.1 11.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 10.3 10.3 11.5 89.5 53.7 49.8 2.6 8.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.2 10.4 12.9 72.8 43.4 43.0 8.5 12.6 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.3 5.7 7.6 61.6 42.8 40.2 4.1 6.7 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------