***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-26.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 9999.0 0.0 5.5 2.6 74.0 73.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 5.0 5.0 5.3 2.6 74.4 73.5 1.9 3.5 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 6.0 6.3 5.5 2.4 73.3 72.7 3.5 4.7 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 45 55 100 1.3 1.6 2.6 1.8 68.2 68.0 -0.3 0.6 1.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 5.6 5.8 3.7 2.1 72.6 71.0 3.2 4.6 5.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 5.3 5.4 3.1 2.0 72.2 71.8 2.8 4.4 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 4.6 4.7 5.2 2.7 74.7 74.3 1.8 3.0 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 0.7 0.9 3.3 1.9 73.1 70.9 -1.2 -0.5 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 6.5 6.6 4.7 2.2 73.0 72.0 3.8 5.4 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 5.7 5.7 4.0 2.0 73.1 70.9 3.0 4.8 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 5.7 6.0 3.8 2.1 74.4 72.3 3.7 4.5 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 6.2 6.4 3.7 2.1 74.0 72.7 4.2 5.3 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 5.6 5.7 3.6 2.2 74.1 73.1 3.6 4.5 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 6.8 7.0 5.0 2.1 70.6 70.3 4.2 5.5 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 3.9 5.5 2.9 1.6 63.4 66.5 1.9 3.5 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 6.1 6.5 3.5 2.2 74.0 72.3 3.9 5.0 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 4.5 4.5 4.9 2.5 73.8 72.7 1.6 3.0 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 3.6 3.7 3.8 1.9 71.8 70.4 1.8 2.7 3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 5.4 5.4 5.4 2.6 73.8 73.0 2.3 3.6 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 3.0 3.2 2.1 1.6 71.5 70.1 1.0 1.9 2.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 5.9 6.2 5.1 2.3 72.7 72.2 3.2 4.9 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 5.2 5.6 5.0 2.4 72.4 71.6 2.6 3.6 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 5.1 5.1 5.5 2.4 72.7 72.3 2.3 3.7 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 6.9 7.1 4.9 2.1 72.2 70.9 3.8 5.7 6.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 4.7 4.9 3.9 2.2 71.6 72.0 2.0 3.3 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 5.3 5.3 3.3 2.1 74.8 73.5 3.3 4.6 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 5.7 6.0 4.8 2.5 72.8 73.8 2.6 4.0 5.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 47 53 100 6.0 6.4 2.9 1.8 66.5 67.4 2.7 4.1 6.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 3.7 3.3 3.2 1.8 71.5 70.8 1.9 2.6 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 5.0 4.7 5.4 2.7 74.0 73.8 1.7 3.3 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------