***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2014.-12.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 9999.0 0.0 6.0 3.2 79.8 74.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 7.1 8.8 5.8 3.3 77.4 73.4 1.1 3.1 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 8.2 9.9 6.1 3.1 78.5 72.9 2.1 4.7 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 3.6 4.3 3.2 2.4 70.9 68.5 -2.0 0.8 3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 7.0 8.7 4.1 2.6 75.3 69.9 1.8 3.6 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 6.8 9.4 3.9 2.9 79.7 72.9 1.4 3.0 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 5.8 7.4 5.7 3.4 78.0 74.3 0.8 2.3 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 44 56 100 1.9 2.7 3.8 2.4 75.3 70.2 -1.3 0.6 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 8.7 10.5 5.1 2.7 76.3 70.5 2.1 4.8 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 7.0 8.5 4.5 2.6 75.3 70.1 1.3 3.4 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 7.9 10.0 4.3 2.8 77.9 72.0 1.7 3.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 8.9 11.5 4.3 2.8 78.4 72.7 1.7 4.6 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 7.9 9.7 4.3 3.1 79.7 74.4 2.1 4.6 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 9.3 11.1 5.6 2.8 75.2 70.0 1.9 6.3 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 6.5 6.7 3.2 2.2 68.5 66.9 1.2 2.9 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 9.1 11.2 4.1 2.9 79.0 72.9 2.5 5.3 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 5.8 8.0 5.4 3.2 76.2 71.8 0.7 2.3 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 45 55 100 3.9 4.8 4.4 2.5 71.4 69.7 0.8 1.9 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 7.7 9.6 5.9 3.2 77.4 72.6 0.9 3.8 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 46 54 100 3.8 3.7 2.6 2.0 66.9 68.1 -1.4 2.6 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 8.0 10.3 5.6 2.9 77.0 71.6 2.3 3.9 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 6.7 8.9 5.5 2.9 74.5 70.1 0.8 2.7 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 6.0 8.2 6.0 3.1 77.2 71.6 1.1 2.7 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 9.3 11.0 5.5 2.8 75.3 70.7 2.1 6.7 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 6.4 8.2 4.3 2.8 77.5 72.5 1.7 2.8 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 6.3 7.5 4.0 2.9 79.4 74.5 1.6 4.5 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 7.8 9.7 5.3 3.1 79.2 74.7 2.4 3.4 7.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 7.6 8.8 3.4 2.4 71.1 68.2 1.2 3.0 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 5.8 7.0 3.8 2.4 69.8 69.7 -0.3 3.1 6.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 6.5 8.3 5.9 3.4 78.4 74.1 1.0 2.5 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------