***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 9999.0 0.0 5.4 2.6 67.0 68.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 47 53 100 5.5 6.0 5.2 2.8 68.5 68.9 1.1 3.9 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 49 51 100 7.3 8.1 5.3 2.3 64.2 66.0 2.2 5.6 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 97 3 100 1.1 1.4 1.3 0.9 56.6 55.5 -1.5 1.0 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 94 6 100 5.1 6.4 3.1 1.6 60.3 60.8 2.2 4.8 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 4.8 5.5 2.6 1.6 62.4 63.0 2.0 4.4 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 5.4 6.1 5.2 3.0 70.7 70.6 0.7 3.9 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 -1.0 0.4 2.9 1.5 60.6 62.0 -2.3 -1.2 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 5.9 7.5 4.4 1.9 61.4 62.7 3.3 5.6 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 91 9 100 5.4 6.1 3.6 1.6 59.4 61.6 2.9 5.1 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 5.0 6.8 3.4 1.6 59.7 61.4 2.4 4.7 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 5.5 6.7 3.2 1.6 60.5 62.6 3.6 5.1 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 4.7 6.8 3.5 1.6 61.3 62.2 1.7 4.4 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 6.3 8.0 4.9 2.0 63.0 63.2 2.8 5.8 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 94 6 100 4.7 4.9 2.1 0.7 53.9 53.0 1.0 4.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 93 7 100 5.3 7.1 3.1 1.6 59.0 61.0 2.8 4.9 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 45 55 100 5.0 5.6 4.8 2.7 69.8 69.0 0.8 3.5 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 3.3 4.1 3.5 1.7 62.7 63.0 1.2 2.9 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 48 52 100 6.3 6.9 5.3 2.7 67.0 67.7 0.7 4.7 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 2.7 4.0 2.1 1.6 63.4 63.6 -1.5 2.2 4.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 5.4 7.3 4.9 2.0 60.5 63.7 3.0 5.0 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 6.0 6.4 4.8 2.4 69.3 67.3 0.9 4.1 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 5.1 6.3 5.3 2.4 64.5 66.0 0.8 4.7 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 7.3 8.3 4.6 1.9 62.7 63.3 3.4 6.9 8.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 4.0 6.2 3.8 2.0 64.6 65.0 1.5 3.6 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 4.3 6.2 2.9 1.6 62.5 63.9 2.3 3.9 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 7.2 8.3 4.9 2.5 68.6 68.7 1.5 5.4 8.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 96 4 100 5.5 6.9 1.8 0.7 53.9 53.0 2.3 5.4 7.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 2.2 3.9 3.0 1.8 64.2 64.8 0.2 1.6 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 5.5 6.3 5.4 2.8 67.3 68.9 1.1 3.7 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------