***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2014.-26.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 0.0 -0.9 2.2 58.9 63.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 -2.2 -1.8 -1.2 2.2 59.1 63.2 -4.2 -2.6 -1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 -0.5 -0.3 -1.1 2.2 60.9 63.7 -2.5 -0.9 0.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 -3.9 -5.4 -4.2 2.2 57.1 64.3 -8.4 -5.6 -4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 -1.6 -1.7 -3.4 2.3 59.8 65.3 -3.4 -2.3 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 -3.0 -3.0 -5.3 2.0 55.5 63.6 -4.1 -3.3 -2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 -2.1 -1.9 -1.1 2.2 58.0 63.1 -4.1 -2.6 -1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 -5.5 -5.8 -4.5 2.2 57.2 64.2 -8.8 -6.0 -5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 -0.4 -0.9 -2.4 2.3 61.8 65.3 -3.0 -1.9 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 -1.4 -1.7 -3.8 2.2 58.7 64.4 -3.8 -2.4 -1.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 -1.9 -1.7 -3.5 2.4 58.8 66.3 -3.6 -2.2 -1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 -2.4 -2.3 -3.8 2.4 58.3 65.8 -3.7 -2.9 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 -2.2 -2.3 -4.2 2.3 56.5 65.3 -3.6 -2.5 -1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 -0.8 -0.9 -2.7 2.0 59.5 63.5 -3.1 -1.6 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 -1.6 -2.3 -3.9 2.0 56.2 63.1 -3.9 -3.6 -0.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 -1.6 -1.4 -4.1 2.4 56.9 66.1 -3.0 -1.9 -1.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 -2.4 -2.5 -1.1 2.2 57.8 62.4 -4.3 -2.9 -1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 -2.6 -3.5 -4.5 2.0 56.6 63.1 -4.7 -3.7 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 -1.8 -1.5 -1.2 2.2 60.4 63.6 -4.2 -2.2 -1.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -6.0 -5.4 -5.9 1.7 54.8 60.7 -8.9 -6.5 -5.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 -1.7 -1.3 -1.5 2.3 62.1 64.3 -3.9 -2.0 -1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 -2.2 -2.1 -1.2 2.1 61.0 62.1 -4.7 -2.6 -1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 -2.4 -1.2 -1.5 2.2 61.1 64.3 -4.2 -2.8 -1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 -1.6 -2.4 -2.9 2.1 58.7 63.9 -3.5 -2.9 -1.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 -1.8 -1.6 -2.9 2.4 57.9 64.9 -3.3 -2.0 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 -2.2 -2.1 -4.1 2.0 54.6 63.8 -3.7 -2.4 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 -1.5 -1.1 -1.8 2.3 59.9 64.5 -3.2 -1.7 -0.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 -2.2 -3.1 -4.1 2.1 56.5 64.2 -4.9 -3.6 -2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 -3.0 -3.0 -5.1 1.9 56.3 62.3 -6.3 -4.7 -2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 -1.8 -1.2 -1.1 2.2 58.5 63.4 -4.4 -2.2 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------