***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 9999.0 0.0 1.3 3.7 83.4 81.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 -0.3 0.1 0.9 3.9 82.4 80.2 -3.8 -1.6 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 1.7 2.3 1.0 3.7 82.5 81.2 -2.3 0.2 1.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 -2.9 -0.9 -1.6 3.5 85.7 83.5 -7.7 -5.0 -3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 -0.3 0.2 -1.0 3.2 79.8 78.0 -3.7 -1.8 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 -0.7 0.4 -2.0 4.0 90.6 89.2 -5.5 -3.0 -1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 0.1 0.5 1.1 4.0 81.9 81.0 -4.3 -1.2 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 -4.8 -4.3 -1.6 4.0 80.8 80.9 -9.1 -7.2 -5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 0.4 1.1 -0.3 3.3 81.7 79.2 -4.0 -0.9 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 -0.5 -0.1 -1.2 3.8 79.3 79.3 -4.1 -2.2 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 -0.2 0.0 -1.0 3.4 81.3 80.0 -4.9 -2.3 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 -0.6 0.0 -1.2 3.5 80.1 79.5 -5.8 -2.9 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 -0.4 -0.3 -1.5 3.1 76.6 76.7 -4.0 -2.1 -1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 0.5 0.6 -0.1 3.9 82.5 81.4 -3.5 -1.0 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 -0.1 0.8 -0.5 3.5 92.0 87.5 -3.6 -1.9 -0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 0.3 0.9 -1.3 3.4 81.3 81.4 -3.6 -1.7 -0.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 -0.4 0.1 0.6 3.8 80.1 77.8 -4.0 -2.0 -1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 -2.0 -1.7 -1.7 4.2 80.1 80.7 -7.0 -3.8 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 -0.1 0.3 0.8 3.8 83.1 80.7 -4.2 -1.1 -0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 -3.5 -3.0 -3.0 4.5 81.0 81.6 -9.7 -6.1 -4.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 0.3 0.7 0.5 3.2 79.9 78.1 -4.5 -1.5 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 -0.4 -0.1 0.5 3.5 78.9 76.5 -4.0 -1.7 -1.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 -0.3 -0.1 0.5 3.8 84.6 82.3 -4.4 -1.5 -0.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 3.9 82.2 81.8 -3.8 -1.6 -1.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 -0.1 0.7 0.1 3.7 86.6 84.8 -2.6 -1.6 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 -0.7 -0.2 -1.3 3.2 83.2 81.3 -5.0 -2.4 -1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 0.8 1.1 0.7 3.7 83.7 81.5 -2.6 -0.8 0.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 -1.0 -0.3 -1.1 3.4 85.4 82.9 -4.8 -3.1 -1.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 -2.3 -1.6 -2.2 4.7 82.4 83.5 -6.6 -4.3 -2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 0.3 0.9 1.2 3.9 83.4 81.5 -4.3 -1.1 -0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------