***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 15.3 21.3 33.2 82.4 40.0 37.8 20.0 22.4 40.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 14.5 20.6 32.3 86.1 42.6 41.0 17.7 23.8 37.5 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 24.5 32.9 34.4 84.7 39.5 38.8 26.6 37.6 48.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 28.1 30.9 34.2 78.4 38.4 38.1 28.1 39.0 48.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 27.6 31.0 37.3 84.4 43.0 41.3 26.4 37.7 47.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 30.8 28.4 36.8 87.7 47.0 45.1 22.5 29.3 33.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 15.1 20.7 31.7 84.8 42.7 40.6 16.4 23.0 37.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 31.8 36.4 42.7 90.2 43.9 44.8 32.8 43.4 63.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 20.3 25.0 39.8 86.9 42.7 41.5 21.2 27.0 36.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 22.7 28.0 43.6 90.8 44.9 44.3 22.5 28.1 37.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 32.8 27.6 36.2 86.0 43.8 42.7 23.0 28.9 38.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 32.5 24.3 37.2 89.6 44.0 45.3 22.3 26.0 42.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 32.2 27.3 37.4 89.0 44.5 45.8 25.6 28.4 35.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 38.2 43.2 44.1 90.1 45.4 42.8 39.2 49.8 57.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 23.1 25.8 30.9 73.6 37.2 37.5 23.8 40.4 51.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 32.9 24.8 34.8 85.3 43.0 43.2 20.0 26.9 37.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 17.0 23.3 31.3 86.5 44.4 42.3 12.1 28.5 32.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 20.9 22.0 48.6 92.4 44.3 44.5 21.3 26.7 38.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 20.6 25.4 33.5 86.8 43.2 40.7 24.5 30.7 37.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 20.8 28.1 54.7 89.4 43.1 43.9 24.2 30.5 45.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 22.1 24.1 36.0 83.6 38.6 38.6 23.2 30.0 42.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 16.8 25.6 33.2 88.0 48.6 42.3 15.4 26.2 37.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 17.3 26.0 36.1 87.7 43.9 40.5 20.1 29.3 38.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 30.6 36.1 43.1 90.3 44.2 42.9 32.7 39.4 44.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 21.9 25.6 37.9 83.1 39.1 38.7 25.2 26.8 42.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 15.0 22.0 37.3 89.7 44.3 46.3 16.9 25.1 35.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 19.4 21.4 36.5 83.7 40.3 38.8 19.2 26.1 37.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 19.4 25.6 32.2 77.1 38.8 38.9 23.9 30.3 39.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 36.9 44.8 52.4 93.8 47.1 45.8 36.6 47.7 60.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 18.1 23.9 32.6 85.2 42.7 39.9 19.1 28.4 34.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------