***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.01.2015.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.6 9.9 103.3 60.5 48.7 2.0 4.8 7.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.3 8.1 9.6 104.8 63.6 51.0 1.7 3.8 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.9 12.3 9.9 101.9 63.9 48.8 4.1 6.7 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 12.4 11.0 9.3 95.7 60.8 49.5 4.1 9.3 13.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.0 9.4 92.6 58.7 48.2 2.4 5.9 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.9 8.0 82.5 55.5 47.1 2.2 5.3 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.6 7.2 9.2 100.8 64.5 50.9 2.0 4.1 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.0 13.1 10.4 94.2 59.8 49.3 5.7 9.3 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.9 10.1 94.1 60.0 48.2 2.7 5.3 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.1 9.2 10.8 95.0 60.5 48.6 3.9 7.3 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.4 5.2 8.5 86.6 54.4 45.9 2.2 4.7 9.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.3 9.5 8.4 87.9 56.9 48.0 1.7 3.8 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.4 8.1 84.0 54.1 47.1 2.4 6.7 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.3 14.3 11.7 101.8 60.8 49.9 8.4 10.7 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.6 8.7 97.6 65.5 50.1 0.5 9.5 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 1.7 4.0 7.8 83.5 53.1 45.8 2.4 3.6 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.0 5.4 9.1 103.9 64.4 52.7 0.9 3.8 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.3 9.0 12.3 98.2 60.9 49.2 5.3 7.3 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.8 10.1 9.8 105.4 63.2 50.4 3.1 7.0 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.2 12.3 14.7 103.5 62.5 52.0 3.2 5.8 12.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.6 9.5 9.8 95.7 60.8 47.6 3.6 5.6 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.4 9.6 9.6 109.6 66.1 52.9 1.7 4.8 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.5 8.9 10.0 102.8 60.5 49.4 4.3 6.7 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.6 12.3 11.3 98.8 60.4 48.7 8.0 10.7 17.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.3 8.9 10.7 99.9 60.1 48.5 3.4 4.6 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.2 8.0 85.0 57.5 49.1 1.0 3.5 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.4 10.7 102.0 59.7 48.5 1.7 3.8 8.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.5 8.0 8.4 92.8 60.7 49.3 0.4 5.3 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.4 15.2 13.5 102.0 62.0 50.2 9.2 13.2 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.4 10.6 9.8 104.4 64.6 50.0 2.7 4.8 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------