***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 0.5 0.9 8.7 80.5 46.5 41.7 0.1 1.1 3.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 0.4 2.6 9.4 98.9 57.1 47.1 0.2 1.0 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 0.7 2.5 9.3 84.5 52.4 42.5 0.7 1.9 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 2.5 4.0 9.5 73.5 49.9 40.5 2.4 4.1 4.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 1.9 4.0 10.2 79.8 49.4 42.1 1.6 4.1 4.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 0.9 1.9 9.9 77.1 50.7 43.9 0.5 1.9 3.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 0.4 1.2 9.3 97.7 56.5 47.0 0.2 1.1 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 4.1 7.2 11.6 87.1 50.5 44.4 2.3 7.2 11.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 1.5 2.8 10.9 83.6 49.0 42.9 1.1 3.3 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.4 11.9 88.2 49.7 44.5 2.5 4.4 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 1.9 4.3 9.9 83.2 50.6 43.7 1.3 4.0 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 1.3 3.4 9.9 84.1 51.3 44.1 0.7 2.8 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.0 4.2 9.8 80.0 50.3 43.2 1.0 4.2 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 2.2 5.7 12.1 91.3 53.9 45.3 3.1 4.7 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 0.5 1.1 8.8 68.0 48.5 39.0 0.4 1.1 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.1 2.5 9.3 78.1 53.1 42.9 1.0 2.2 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 0.4 3.4 9.6 106.0 63.4 49.3 0.3 1.0 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 6.1 4.1 13.3 91.9 51.4 45.7 2.5 3.9 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 0.4 2.5 9.5 96.3 57.0 46.2 0.3 1.0 3.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.4 4.4 14.9 88.5 50.2 45.0 2.9 4.4 6.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 1.0 2.6 9.7 80.2 49.4 41.5 1.3 2.6 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 0.4 2.5 9.9 102.9 59.1 48.6 0.0 1.0 3.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 0.6 2.3 10.1 92.9 56.4 45.2 0.2 1.5 4.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 2.2 4.7 11.8 89.6 52.3 44.6 1.8 4.6 7.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 0.8 1.2 10.0 77.9 42.2 40.4 0.5 1.5 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 0.7 1.6 9.8 80.1 52.1 44.2 0.8 1.4 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 0.8 0.6 9.7 80.9 43.9 41.4 0.3 1.8 5.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 1.2 3.0 9.1 71.5 51.3 40.9 0.6 2.6 4.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 3.9 8.0 14.1 92.7 52.7 46.2 3.7 7.1 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 0.2 0.9 9.2 93.0 54.0 45.4 0.2 0.6 2.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------