***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 4.5 4.3 7.3 91.0 56.9 48.3 1.2 3.7 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.8 7.7 95.4 55.1 50.2 2.0 4.7 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.3 7.5 92.7 55.2 48.8 3.6 7.2 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.8 9.0 7.0 83.0 53.7 45.0 1.9 7.8 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.3 6.9 7.9 91.8 53.7 47.9 2.9 5.9 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.2 8.4 93.1 56.4 48.5 1.0 3.6 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.0 4.8 7.7 95.0 58.2 49.8 1.5 4.0 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 11.9 10.4 9.4 95.9 58.2 49.1 2.6 9.3 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.7 6.4 8.5 92.1 54.7 47.6 1.1 5.3 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.3 5.5 9.3 94.6 56.3 48.2 0.8 4.6 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.3 5.1 7.9 94.3 56.7 48.8 0.6 4.4 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.0 7.1 8.4 97.5 59.8 50.6 1.3 2.8 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.2 8.3 94.8 59.0 50.2 1.3 4.4 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.0 9.7 9.6 91.0 57.0 47.8 3.4 8.3 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.4 3.3 6.0 70.9 49.0 42.0 1.1 3.6 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.3 5.1 7.7 93.4 56.7 49.5 0.8 3.3 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.4 7.5 7.7 97.2 57.9 50.9 2.2 4.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.1 6.0 10.5 96.4 55.9 48.5 1.5 4.3 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.2 7.8 94.3 55.2 49.6 2.7 5.3 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.3 7.1 12.3 93.2 55.4 48.2 1.5 6.6 12.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.2 6.5 7.6 92.2 54.3 48.5 2.2 6.2 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.9 8.4 98.0 57.0 51.1 2.2 5.3 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.2 6.6 8.2 92.8 56.9 48.6 2.5 5.7 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.1 8.5 9.3 95.2 55.8 48.7 4.2 7.6 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.3 7.4 8.0 90.1 53.9 47.6 1.8 6.3 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.3 8.6 97.4 60.2 50.7 1.1 3.9 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.8 4.2 8.1 90.8 55.8 48.3 1.7 3.7 7.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.6 2.1 6.6 78.7 51.6 43.6 0.2 1.8 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 3.0 8.2 11.5 97.1 57.6 49.3 2.5 5.6 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.1 7.5 93.4 55.3 49.0 2.3 4.2 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------