***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-04.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 10.2 6.8 7.2 61.2 47.3 38.6 2.5 7.5 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.6 3.2 5.6 52.0 44.5 37.1 2.4 3.8 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.0 7.6 7.6 65.2 45.6 40.2 4.7 9.6 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 12.7 11.2 8.5 67.0 51.6 44.4 7.7 11.2 15.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 11.4 11.1 9.8 77.5 53.5 48.0 7.6 9.7 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.9 13.2 10.4 101.1 65.0 57.8 4.2 7.3 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.6 3.7 5.5 51.8 44.2 36.5 1.8 4.6 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 13.8 13.0 11.3 85.9 55.5 50.7 8.1 11.5 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 9.1 8.1 10.4 80.5 52.7 48.1 5.0 8.0 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 10.5 10.2 11.6 87.0 55.5 50.5 7.0 9.8 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 10.9 10.7 9.9 82.6 56.9 51.0 7.2 10.1 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 9.8 11.2 10.5 90.6 59.7 54.2 5.2 8.8 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 13.2 13.4 11.1 98.6 59.5 56.8 6.3 12.8 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.9 10.9 10.6 78.4 48.4 45.1 9.1 11.3 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.8 8.5 7.4 63.5 49.9 44.5 0.9 8.6 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 9.2 10.7 10.0 88.5 57.5 53.6 6.1 8.1 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 7.3 4.4 4.9 47.0 42.0 36.5 2.5 4.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 10.0 8.9 12.4 84.9 52.7 48.1 6.3 8.8 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.6 5.4 6.3 56.9 45.0 38.2 3.9 6.4 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.4 7.0 12.9 76.2 46.3 43.8 5.0 7.0 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.2 8.4 8.9 71.3 50.3 44.0 4.3 8.3 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.5 3.2 5.4 49.4 41.7 36.2 1.6 5.7 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.5 5.0 7.8 66.5 44.7 40.7 2.9 7.3 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 11.3 9.7 10.8 80.2 51.5 46.8 8.6 9.6 14.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 11.8 10.1 9.1 69.7 48.6 44.2 5.6 10.6 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 8.3 9.5 11.0 98.4 63.6 56.7 4.6 7.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 10.5 7.4 8.1 65.7 47.8 41.3 4.2 7.5 11.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 10.8 10.1 8.2 70.3 53.1 47.0 2.6 9.4 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 14.3 13.5 13.2 85.4 51.2 48.0 10.6 13.4 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.5 4.3 6.1 55.8 44.6 37.1 2.1 6.3 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------