***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 2.0 1.8 1.0 -2.4 24.3 27.5 2.5 3.4 4.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.1 1.7 0.8 -2.1 29.5 30.2 1.8 3.7 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.1 2.8 1.2 -2.3 25.6 28.6 3.6 4.8 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 -1.5 -1.9 -0.8 -2.2 21.6 26.0 -0.3 0.4 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 2.9 2.5 -0.1 -2.3 24.0 26.6 3.5 4.6 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 2.8 2.5 -0.5 -2.2 21.6 26.8 3.1 4.2 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.6 1.5 0.8 -2.1 28.0 30.4 1.6 3.0 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -2.0 -2.5 -0.4 -2.3 21.4 25.1 -1.3 -0.5 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.9 3.4 0.8 -2.1 24.8 28.6 3.7 5.6 6.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 3.1 2.5 0.3 -2.2 23.4 26.9 2.9 4.7 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 2.9 2.8 -0.1 -2.3 22.7 26.0 3.8 4.4 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 3.5 2.9 -0.3 -2.4 21.3 24.4 4.2 5.3 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 3.1 2.9 -0.5 -2.5 20.9 24.1 3.5 4.3 5.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 3.6 3.6 1.3 -2.0 27.5 31.0 4.1 5.7 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 1.9 1.6 -0.3 -2.0 22.5 27.5 2.1 3.6 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 3.5 3.2 -0.5 -2.3 22.0 25.3 4.3 4.8 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.5 1.4 1.0 -1.7 29.7 33.5 1.6 2.9 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 1.8 1.5 0.3 -2.2 24.3 27.4 1.7 2.8 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.2 2.1 1.0 -2.2 29.5 30.2 2.3 3.7 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 0.3 -0.1 -1.3 -2.3 20.5 24.1 0.9 2.1 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.4 2.7 1.1 -2.2 25.7 28.5 3.5 5.0 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.1 2.2 1.2 -1.7 29.5 33.7 2.3 3.6 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.0 2.3 1.2 -2.1 28.9 30.7 2.4 3.6 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 3.9 3.4 1.2 -2.1 26.5 29.4 4.0 6.0 7.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.0 1.6 -0.1 -2.2 22.9 26.7 2.0 3.3 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 2.9 2.7 -0.8 -2.5 19.7 23.1 3.4 4.5 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.6 2.2 0.5 -2.3 23.0 27.3 2.6 4.2 5.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 2.3 2.2 -0.5 -2.1 22.1 27.0 2.7 3.8 6.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 1.0 1.0 -0.3 -2.2 23.7 26.8 1.7 2.6 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.0 1.4 0.8 -2.3 27.5 28.9 1.6 3.4 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------