***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.01.2015.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.1 3.0 3.9 0.5 52.5 53.0 0.5 2.7 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.0 1.8 3.6 0.5 48.0 53.0 0.7 1.9 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 1.6 4.2 4.1 0.4 53.1 53.1 0.8 3.6 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -0.1 -1.3 1.7 0.1 49.9 51.8 -2.7 -1.3 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.1 3.9 2.4 0.2 50.2 51.9 1.8 3.9 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.4 1.8 0.2 50.4 51.2 1.8 3.4 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 3.0 1.8 3.5 0.5 47.9 53.1 0.6 1.9 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.2 -1.0 1.9 0.0 44.2 50.2 -2.3 -0.4 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.4 5.2 3.4 0.3 51.6 52.7 2.0 5.2 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.0 2.7 0.2 47.5 51.5 1.8 4.2 5.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.3 2.3 0.1 49.0 51.5 2.0 4.3 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.0 3.9 2.1 0.0 45.7 49.7 1.9 4.1 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 4.5 3.8 1.9 0.0 47.2 49.6 2.5 4.0 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 1.9 3.7 3.8 0.3 51.6 52.3 1.5 3.6 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 3.2 2.2 1.8 0.1 47.8 50.8 0.6 2.4 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.5 4.9 2.0 0.1 48.9 50.9 2.6 4.9 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 2.8 1.5 3.6 0.5 47.7 53.2 0.7 1.7 4.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 0.9 2.4 2.7 0.2 46.6 51.2 1.6 2.5 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 0.9 2.1 3.9 0.5 49.1 53.0 0.5 2.3 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -0.2 1.5 0.9 0.0 43.1 49.4 0.4 2.3 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.0 4.8 3.8 0.4 53.6 53.0 1.3 4.4 5.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 1.2 2.4 3.9 0.5 49.1 53.3 0.9 2.4 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 0.9 2.5 4.1 0.4 51.4 53.2 0.5 2.0 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.3 4.4 3.7 0.3 51.2 52.3 1.6 4.3 5.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 1.2 3.6 2.5 0.4 52.7 52.5 0.9 2.9 4.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.4 3.9 1.6 -0.1 47.0 48.1 2.9 4.0 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.7 4.5 3.2 0.4 52.0 52.8 1.4 4.3 5.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.2 3.2 1.9 0.1 48.7 51.3 1.2 3.3 5.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 3.5 2.3 2.0 0.1 46.6 50.3 0.2 2.7 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 0.6 1.9 3.8 0.5 49.6 53.0 0.5 2.0 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------