***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 1.7 2.4 2.8 -0.1 44.0 48.9 2.0 3.1 4.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.0 2.4 2.6 0.0 45.1 49.1 1.5 3.0 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 1.8 3.4 3.1 0.0 44.4 49.2 2.3 3.8 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -2.4 -1.1 1.0 0.0 43.3 49.5 -2.2 0.4 2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.2 3.0 1.7 0.0 42.6 49.3 2.6 3.2 5.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.0 4.1 1.3 0.3 49.3 52.3 2.5 4.1 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 0.5 2.2 2.5 0.0 45.8 49.2 1.6 2.4 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -1.7 -0.1 1.6 0.2 47.1 50.9 -1.8 0.6 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.7 3.9 2.6 0.1 46.2 49.7 3.2 4.0 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 1.8 3.5 2.2 0.2 47.8 50.8 2.6 3.5 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 5.0 3.0 1.7 0.1 43.9 49.8 2.5 3.7 5.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.0 4.3 1.6 0.0 45.6 49.4 3.1 4.4 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.0 3.2 1.3 0.0 46.2 49.6 2.7 3.4 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 2.2 4.0 3.1 0.3 48.8 50.9 2.5 4.0 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.9 4.3 1.3 0.1 47.1 50.8 2.4 4.6 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.5 3.8 1.4 0.0 44.0 49.7 3.4 4.0 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 0.6 2.0 2.7 0.2 47.2 50.3 1.5 2.3 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 2.8 2.0 2.3 0.4 48.5 51.8 0.8 2.0 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 1.1 2.7 2.9 0.0 44.7 49.0 1.5 3.4 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 1.5 0.2 0.8 0.4 47.9 52.5 -0.9 0.4 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.1 3.0 2.8 0.0 44.8 49.4 2.7 3.3 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 1.1 2.8 3.0 0.2 48.9 50.2 1.3 2.8 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 0.9 2.4 3.2 0.1 44.8 49.2 1.4 2.7 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 2.5 4.0 3.0 0.3 47.1 50.9 2.9 4.4 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 1.7 2.5 1.6 0.0 42.8 49.4 1.8 3.0 4.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.3 3.4 1.1 -0.2 47.0 48.5 2.5 3.5 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 1.6 2.5 2.2 -0.1 43.9 49.1 2.0 2.9 5.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.1 4.3 1.3 0.1 45.4 50.2 3.0 4.5 6.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.6 1.5 1.7 0.4 48.9 52.4 0.0 1.7 4.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 0.6 2.5 2.7 -0.1 44.3 48.8 1.1 2.9 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------