***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 1.3 0.5 1.4 -2.0 27.4 35.3 0.9 2.7 7.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 0.4 1.3 1.2 -1.6 31.9 39.3 1.3 2.3 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.0 1.6 1.8 -1.8 29.8 38.4 2.2 3.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -2.6 -3.0 0.0 -1.7 25.5 35.5 -2.1 -0.5 2.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 1.3 1.1 0.7 -1.6 29.3 37.7 2.3 3.3 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 1.0 1.8 0.8 -1.2 35.3 42.5 1.7 3.6 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 0.3 0.3 1.2 -1.6 31.2 38.7 0.6 1.9 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -2.3 -1.6 0.8 -1.3 33.3 41.6 -1.6 -0.5 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.2 2.4 1.7 -1.5 31.8 40.4 2.5 4.1 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 1.4 1.5 1.5 -1.2 34.6 42.6 1.3 2.9 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 1.4 2.0 0.8 -1.5 32.4 39.0 2.0 3.5 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 1.5 0.8 0.7 -1.6 29.3 37.9 2.0 4.7 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 1.2 1.2 0.4 -1.6 28.5 37.6 2.2 5.2 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.3 2.4 2.3 -1.0 37.9 45.6 1.9 4.8 8.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 0.7 0.2 0.2 -1.7 23.7 34.9 0.6 3.0 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 1.6 2.8 0.5 -1.5 30.3 38.2 3.3 5.0 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 3.4 0.8 1.6 -1.0 37.2 43.3 0.3 2.0 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 0.4 1.0 1.7 -1.0 37.3 45.3 0.6 1.9 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 4.5 0.8 1.4 -1.6 32.4 39.8 0.9 2.8 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -0.6 -1.4 0.2 -1.0 35.2 43.8 -1.8 2.2 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 1.8 1.8 1.7 -1.7 30.1 38.5 2.2 3.6 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.3 1.3 1.9 -1.0 38.8 44.5 0.9 2.8 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 3.8 1.4 1.9 -1.5 34.4 41.4 0.9 2.7 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.5 2.6 2.2 -1.1 36.2 44.4 2.4 6.4 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 1.2 0.9 0.5 -1.8 26.9 36.3 1.4 3.0 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 0.7 0.3 0.2 -1.7 23.4 35.3 2.3 4.3 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.4 1.3 1.0 -1.9 28.0 36.3 2.4 3.9 7.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.5 0.6 0.2 -1.6 26.3 36.4 1.7 3.3 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 0.1 1.3 1.1 -1.0 37.6 44.9 0.0 2.6 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 0.6 0.4 1.2 -1.9 29.6 37.3 0.8 2.3 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------