***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-04.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 -2.7 -4.7 -4.3 -7.8 1.7 3.8 1.1 5.4 6.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 99 1 0 100 -3.0 -3.8 -4.3 -7.4 2.2 6.8 1.1 4.8 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 -1.8 -4.0 -4.0 -7.7 1.6 4.0 2.9 6.2 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 -3.5 -8.7 -5.9 -7.2 2.4 3.7 -1.1 0.8 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 -1.0 -3.3 -5.3 -7.6 1.6 3.0 1.8 5.2 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 0.1 -2.8 -6.0 -7.9 1.6 2.0 1.6 3.5 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 97 3 0 100 -2.9 -4.8 -4.2 -7.1 2.5 7.4 0.6 4.8 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 -5.7 -7.5 -6.0 -8.2 1.3 1.9 -2.0 -1.1 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 -0.9 -3.1 -4.3 -7.4 1.8 3.6 3.4 6.0 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 -0.4 -3.5 -5.2 -8.0 1.5 2.5 3.2 5.1 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 -1.0 -3.8 -5.3 -7.8 1.5 2.7 2.3 5.3 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 0.5 -3.6 -5.7 -8.1 1.6 2.2 2.6 5.0 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 0.1 -2.9 -5.8 -8.3 1.6 2.1 1.6 4.6 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 -1.7 -3.3 -4.2 -7.6 2.6 4.3 4.0 6.2 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 99 1 0 100 -0.7 -3.7 -4.4 -6.5 3.6 5.8 2.2 4.3 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 0.4 -2.6 -5.7 -8.0 1.5 2.5 2.1 5.4 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 93 7 0 100 -3.0 -4.2 -3.8 -6.4 3.4 10.5 0.9 4.2 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 -1.2 -3.6 -5.5 -8.2 1.4 2.2 0.8 2.6 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 -3.4 -4.1 -4.3 -7.5 2.0 5.9 1.6 5.4 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 -3.8 -6.9 -7.3 -8.7 0.0 1.3 -1.8 3.3 4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 -1.0 -3.6 -4.0 -7.5 1.7 3.7 2.8 6.0 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 99 1 0 100 -2.8 -3.8 -3.8 -6.7 3.0 9.1 1.6 5.2 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 -2.9 -3.7 -4.1 -7.5 2.2 5.0 1.1 5.5 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 -1.9 -3.4 -4.3 -7.8 2.0 3.5 3.9 7.0 8.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 -1.0 -4.3 -5.0 -7.5 2.2 3.3 1.5 4.4 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 -0.6 -1.9 -6.1 -8.1 1.5 2.0 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 -0.8 -3.9 -4.6 -7.7 2.1 3.5 1.8 6.4 8.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 99 1 0 100 -0.2 -3.5 -5.2 -7.1 2.9 4.7 3.3 6.2 7.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 -3.0 -8.0 -6.2 -8.2 0.9 1.9 0.0 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 -3.2 -4.4 -4.4 -7.7 2.1 5.3 1.1 4.9 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------