***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 -4.0 -4.3 -5.1 -2.8 19.3 24.5 -3.4 -2.8 -1.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 -4.2 -4.1 -5.0 -2.2 27.6 30.2 -3.7 -2.8 -1.9 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 -2.3 -2.5 -5.4 -2.8 20.5 24.5 -2.2 -0.8 0.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 -7.8 -7.9 -8.3 -3.1 18.7 21.8 -6.7 -5.9 -4.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 -4.8 -5.2 -7.6 -3.0 18.5 22.8 -3.8 -3.1 -2.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 -5.7 -5.3 -8.8 -2.7 21.6 24.8 -4.6 -4.1 -3.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 -3.9 -4.0 -4.9 -2.1 26.4 31.1 -3.6 -2.6 -1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 -8.9 -9.0 -8.8 -3.2 18.7 21.9 -7.6 -7.3 -6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 -4.2 -4.4 -6.6 -2.8 18.6 24.5 -3.2 -2.3 -1.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 -4.4 -4.6 -8.0 -3.1 19.3 23.6 -3.8 -2.8 -2.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 -4.7 -4.9 -8.0 -3.2 17.4 21.9 -4.0 -3.1 -2.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 -5.9 -6.4 -8.6 -3.5 15.9 20.4 -4.7 -4.0 -2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 -5.2 -5.7 -8.5 -3.2 18.3 22.2 -4.2 -3.4 -2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 -3.3 -3.3 -7.0 -2.9 21.1 24.6 -2.9 -1.8 -1.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 -4.9 -5.5 -7.7 -3.0 16.2 22.8 -4.4 -3.0 -1.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 -4.0 -4.0 -8.5 -3.2 18.0 21.7 -3.3 -2.4 -1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 -4.2 -4.0 -4.5 -1.6 28.6 34.5 -4.0 -3.0 -2.3 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 -6.8 -6.8 -8.6 -3.0 21.7 24.8 -6.2 -5.0 -3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 -3.9 -4.0 -5.2 -2.3 27.0 28.8 -3.9 -2.8 -1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 -9.8 -9.8 -9.3 -2.6 26.1 26.9 -9.4 -7.8 -6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 -4.1 -4.3 -5.8 -2.9 18.7 23.9 -3.5 -2.8 -1.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 -4.3 -4.1 -4.6 -1.7 28.2 33.8 -3.9 -3.0 -2.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 -4.2 -3.7 -5.6 -2.5 25.1 27.2 -3.5 -2.8 -2.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 -4.0 -4.0 -7.1 -2.9 20.6 24.2 -3.6 -2.8 -2.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 -3.9 -4.1 -7.0 -3.0 19.6 22.5 -3.7 -2.5 -2.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 -5.6 -5.8 -8.3 -3.3 17.8 20.9 -4.4 -3.4 -2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 -3.8 -4.4 -5.9 -2.9 20.3 24.0 -3.8 -2.0 -1.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 -5.8 -6.2 -8.0 -3.0 17.9 22.7 -5.3 -4.0 -3.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 -6.6 -6.1 -8.9 -2.7 25.0 26.0 -5.6 -4.7 -4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 -3.7 -3.8 -5.1 -2.4 24.8 28.0 -3.8 -2.6 -1.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------