***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.01.2015.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 -1.6 -2.7 -2.3 0.3 41.7 52.2 -3.6 -2.1 -0.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 -2.3 -3.3 -2.6 0.4 42.6 52.1 -4.0 -2.8 -1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 -0.7 -2.2 -2.6 0.4 41.5 51.3 -2.6 -1.2 0.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 -5.5 -6.5 -5.8 0.1 41.2 48.7 -8.6 -6.1 -5.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 -2.1 -2.9 -5.1 0.1 40.7 48.7 -3.7 -2.4 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 -2.9 -3.4 -6.6 -0.1 45.6 46.4 -4.3 -3.3 -2.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 -2.3 -3.3 -2.5 0.5 43.6 52.9 -4.0 -3.0 -1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -6.1 -7.0 -5.9 0.1 41.5 47.8 -8.4 -6.4 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 -3.5 -3.0 -4.0 0.2 42.5 49.8 -3.2 -2.4 -0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 -2.2 -3.0 -5.2 0.2 42.5 49.0 -3.6 -2.5 -1.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 -2.0 -3.3 -5.4 -0.1 38.7 47.2 -3.6 -2.3 -1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 -2.6 -3.8 -5.7 -0.1 38.0 46.0 -4.2 -2.9 -2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 -2.5 -3.3 -5.9 -0.1 39.4 46.1 -3.5 -2.9 -1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 -1.6 -2.4 -4.0 0.4 43.5 49.8 -3.2 -2.0 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 -2.2 -2.8 -5.4 0.2 42.9 48.8 -4.3 -2.5 -1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 -1.6 -2.7 -5.9 -0.1 38.7 47.0 -3.1 -2.0 -1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 -2.6 -3.7 -2.3 0.6 45.3 53.1 -4.5 -3.3 -1.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 -3.6 -4.3 -5.6 0.2 44.2 49.2 -4.5 -4.1 -3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 -1.9 -3.5 -2.7 0.4 41.8 51.4 -4.3 -2.3 -1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -6.3 -7.5 -6.5 0.4 45.7 50.9 -8.6 -6.8 -5.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 -2.1 -3.3 -3.0 0.4 42.6 51.3 -3.7 -2.7 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -3.6 -2.4 0.6 43.3 52.3 -4.3 -2.9 -1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 -2.1 -4.1 -3.0 0.4 41.6 50.8 -4.2 -2.6 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 -2.7 -3.4 -4.2 0.2 43.3 49.4 -3.8 -3.3 -1.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 -2.0 -2.5 -4.4 0.3 43.3 50.9 -3.4 -2.3 -1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 -2.3 -3.5 -5.6 0.0 40.0 46.0 -3.8 -2.7 -1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 -1.3 -1.8 -3.3 0.3 42.7 52.0 -3.7 -1.5 -0.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 -3.0 -4.4 -5.6 0.1 41.4 48.5 -4.9 -3.4 -1.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 -4.3 -5.0 -6.0 0.2 46.2 49.9 -6.1 -4.7 -3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 -2.0 -2.9 -2.5 0.4 42.2 52.0 -3.8 -2.7 -1.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------