***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 -3.3 -2.9 -3.1 -0.5 38.9 48.0 -3.1 -2.4 -0.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 -4.4 -2.9 -3.2 -0.1 42.6 49.9 -3.3 -2.7 -1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 -2.9 -1.7 -3.3 -0.4 38.0 48.2 -2.0 -0.8 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -7.9 -6.9 -6.3 -0.8 36.7 44.6 -7.2 -5.7 -5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 -4.7 -3.6 -5.7 -0.7 35.4 45.2 -3.8 -2.9 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 -3.6 -5.4 -6.8 -0.6 39.5 46.9 -5.5 -4.2 -2.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 -4.5 -2.9 -3.2 -0.1 42.5 49.8 -3.3 -2.5 -1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -8.4 -8.9 -6.6 -0.7 37.4 45.4 -9.0 -6.8 -5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 -4.3 -3.3 -4.6 -0.5 36.2 47.6 -3.4 -2.3 -0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 -5.2 -3.6 -5.9 -0.6 37.1 46.4 -3.7 -3.0 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 -5.1 -4.5 -6.1 -0.8 32.6 43.6 -4.4 -3.0 -1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 -6.3 -5.5 -6.5 -1.0 32.6 42.8 -5.4 -4.5 -2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 -5.6 -5.1 -6.5 -0.9 34.3 43.5 -5.2 -3.9 -2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 -1.5 -2.3 -4.8 -0.5 40.3 47.2 -2.8 -1.9 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 -4.5 -4.3 -5.8 -0.8 34.1 45.6 -4.3 -2.2 -1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 -4.5 -3.4 -6.6 -0.9 31.5 43.2 -3.4 -3.1 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 -4.4 -3.1 -2.8 0.2 45.6 51.6 -3.7 -2.8 -1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 -6.4 -5.3 -6.4 -0.5 41.0 47.1 -6.2 -4.4 -3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 -4.2 -2.8 -3.3 -0.1 41.2 49.3 -3.3 -2.3 -1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -7.9 -9.3 -7.2 -0.2 46.0 49.7 -11.1 -8.8 -5.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 -4.1 -3.0 -3.7 -0.4 36.5 48.0 -3.2 -2.5 -1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 -4.2 -3.4 -2.8 0.3 45.4 51.4 -3.9 -3.1 -1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 -4.2 -2.9 -3.6 -0.3 38.0 48.5 -3.5 -2.6 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 -4.3 -3.3 -4.9 -0.5 38.9 47.2 -3.7 -2.9 -1.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 -1.5 -2.9 -5.1 -0.7 38.7 46.5 -3.3 -1.9 -1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 -2.8 -4.5 -6.1 -0.9 36.2 43.4 -4.7 -3.2 -1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 -4.7 -3.2 -4.0 -0.6 38.5 47.4 -3.2 -2.5 -1.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 -6.0 -5.5 -6.1 -0.8 36.3 45.3 -5.6 -4.1 -2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -5.1 -6.4 -6.7 -0.4 43.0 47.6 -6.9 -6.1 -4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 -4.4 -2.9 -3.2 -0.2 40.6 49.1 -3.2 -2.6 -1.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------