***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2020.-24.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 27.0 42.2 47.2 115.3 63.2 60.3 19.8 22.3 44.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 38.2 34.9 43.9 118.4 67.7 62.0 18.2 25.4 31.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 41.3 42.7 44.2 108.4 56.8 56.2 22.4 38.5 47.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 43.0 50.1 52.0 113.9 65.7 59.6 26.4 38.1 50.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 41.4 45.8 47.6 102.1 56.2 53.9 23.0 38.2 47.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 29.8 31.9 43.3 104.2 57.9 54.1 22.7 28.6 32.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 39.7 37.0 43.8 120.0 69.0 62.3 18.4 25.5 36.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 50.5 59.0 56.1 114.1 63.6 58.8 32.8 42.0 60.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 30.2 28.2 47.3 99.3 51.6 51.5 20.8 26.8 36.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 31.4 28.0 51.1 102.1 53.4 52.7 22.4 27.6 40.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 34.4 33.6 46.9 103.6 56.5 54.6 21.2 30.9 38.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 43.1 40.3 49.5 113.5 64.3 59.0 22.5 27.1 41.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 33.2 29.8 46.3 101.3 54.4 52.1 26.4 28.4 33.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 51.9 50.0 52.1 100.3 52.0 52.1 36.2 48.4 57.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 52.5 53.5 52.6 126.9 69.7 63.2 21.6 40.4 51.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 32.6 29.8 43.6 99.7 53.8 52.0 21.5 26.9 37.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 35.4 33.1 43.9 120.0 68.6 62.7 13.1 25.8 33.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 33.7 30.1 54.0 103.1 53.8 53.0 21.2 29.0 38.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 34.1 36.1 43.4 114.3 64.2 60.1 22.1 30.3 37.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 55.9 57.9 82.8 128.3 72.1 65.9 25.0 35.7 47.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 35.3 36.0 46.9 104.4 56.4 54.4 22.3 31.3 42.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 38.0 41.4 45.0 116.9 67.3 62.2 16.4 25.8 41.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 32.4 32.7 43.5 107.0 56.6 55.9 19.8 29.0 38.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 40.4 36.3 47.9 98.6 50.0 50.4 29.8 36.3 44.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 43.8 45.2 54.7 116.3 66.0 61.6 25.0 28.4 45.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 36.2 37.9 50.9 117.0 67.4 60.9 17.3 24.5 37.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 32.6 43.9 50.9 117.7 66.2 62.2 17.9 27.0 43.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 34.3 43.2 46.7 112.7 63.1 58.5 20.6 30.3 44.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 48.9 60.2 62.5 112.0 62.3 58.3 36.7 41.5 61.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 40.6 32.6 44.3 117.4 66.7 61.2 20.3 26.5 31.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------