***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2021.-24.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.6 7.8 11.9 124.8 67.5 56.0 3.1 4.8 7.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.5 8.0 11.0 124.1 68.2 56.9 1.7 4.6 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.7 12.1 10.5 114.1 64.5 53.4 4.5 6.1 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.5 12.0 11.2 107.3 61.0 52.6 6.3 10.3 13.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.6 11.4 10.4 99.0 58.3 51.4 1.7 5.5 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.7 6.3 9.5 90.8 57.9 47.7 3.0 5.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.8 7.6 11.1 125.7 66.1 57.5 2.3 4.3 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.3 14.7 11.5 97.9 58.8 50.3 6.9 13.3 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.5 10.0 10.8 98.6 59.8 50.9 2.6 5.3 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 9.4 10.5 11.2 96.7 58.4 50.3 3.5 7.8 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.4 8.0 9.8 95.8 58.4 50.5 3.9 7.3 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.4 10.4 9.7 94.5 58.2 49.4 1.9 9.1 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.4 9.6 89.8 56.5 47.9 6.2 7.5 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.4 11.9 99.8 57.8 50.3 8.6 9.8 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.3 10.4 11.0 109.7 63.7 51.5 4.9 9.2 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.1 7.0 9.2 91.7 56.4 48.1 3.0 6.4 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.7 7.5 11.1 124.0 68.1 57.7 1.6 4.7 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.9 9.9 12.0 98.4 57.4 50.8 5.6 7.9 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.0 12.1 10.5 118.3 67.3 55.1 3.1 6.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.8 10.2 16.8 103.1 60.2 52.2 4.7 9.0 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.5 9.2 10.8 106.3 61.2 52.3 3.8 7.8 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.9 8.2 10.8 115.7 68.4 55.5 2.7 5.4 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.6 9.4 10.0 107.1 63.1 52.5 3.5 7.0 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.9 13.2 11.1 100.7 58.3 50.5 5.6 10.5 16.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.8 12.7 13.2 120.4 67.2 56.2 3.3 6.8 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 1.9 5.8 10.1 96.1 60.5 50.7 1.3 3.5 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.2 7.9 12.8 125.6 68.0 56.6 2.9 4.9 7.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.5 7.4 9.6 99.5 60.1 50.1 4.0 5.9 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.4 13.2 13.4 100.2 57.9 51.3 8.9 12.8 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.8 10.5 11.0 123.7 67.5 56.5 2.0 4.3 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------