***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2021.-17.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 0.5 1.4 10.9 101.0 56.2 50.4 0.1 1.2 1.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 2.7 2.7 10.3 108.5 61.5 53.2 0.3 1.1 3.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 0.8 2.7 10.8 100.9 57.4 50.4 0.7 1.5 3.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.2 4.5 12.6 104.7 58.8 52.1 2.5 3.8 4.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 1.3 4.6 12.6 100.4 56.8 50.7 1.4 3.1 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 3.1 2.7 12.3 115.0 64.4 54.0 0.5 1.4 2.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 2.6 2.9 10.2 109.2 63.4 53.5 0.3 0.9 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 1.9 5.5 13.7 107.3 60.5 50.9 1.6 3.5 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 0.9 2.5 12.9 96.8 55.2 49.2 0.7 2.0 4.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 1.7 4.4 13.7 101.8 57.3 50.4 0.5 3.8 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 1.1 3.5 12.5 103.6 58.4 50.7 0.4 2.3 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 3.7 2.3 12.4 110.2 62.3 50.9 0.5 2.0 2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 0.9 4.1 13.1 112.6 62.9 52.5 0.9 1.7 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 1.8 4.5 13.2 98.8 56.1 50.3 1.3 3.9 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 0.7 2.8 11.3 102.5 61.5 51.4 0.5 1.5 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 0.8 2.8 11.9 103.7 59.5 50.2 0.8 1.6 4.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 2.8 3.2 10.3 111.0 64.3 54.5 0.4 1.5 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 1.3 3.9 14.1 101.8 56.9 50.4 1.5 2.8 5.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 3.2 2.4 10.4 106.7 59.1 52.5 0.3 1.2 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 1.7 5.0 17.8 105.6 60.9 51.7 1.4 3.3 5.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 1.2 3.0 12.1 98.2 54.0 49.7 1.1 2.7 3.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 2.3 2.3 10.7 109.8 61.5 54.3 0.1 1.4 3.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 0.5 1.5 10.7 103.2 56.0 51.6 0.3 0.9 3.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 1.8 4.4 12.6 98.8 55.7 49.7 1.4 3.8 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 0.9 2.2 12.7 101.1 55.4 50.7 0.5 1.8 4.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 2.4 3.5 12.9 117.9 63.3 52.4 0.6 1.2 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 0.8 1.8 11.6 101.5 57.1 50.8 0.3 1.7 3.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.0 3.1 11.5 104.2 60.2 51.9 0.8 1.8 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 2.8 7.3 15.1 103.1 58.2 50.6 2.8 5.6 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 2.7 1.5 10.4 105.8 59.7 52.4 0.3 1.1 1.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------