***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2021.-10.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 6.9 6.9 14.5 130.0 70.0 59.5 1.5 4.6 6.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.4 8.4 13.2 130.6 68.2 60.6 1.4 3.8 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.9 12.4 15.1 132.5 70.7 60.4 5.0 7.4 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 14.1 17.7 19.3 152.9 79.1 66.4 3.5 7.9 10.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 14.2 15.9 17.5 139.9 73.8 64.1 3.2 6.2 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 9.3 10.7 15.6 137.8 75.1 61.5 1.2 5.7 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.1 6.7 12.7 126.9 66.4 60.1 2.5 3.7 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 18.5 17.7 17.5 134.0 70.6 61.6 3.9 9.9 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.2 10.6 16.0 123.5 68.6 58.5 1.5 6.0 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.4 12.8 17.1 131.1 69.5 61.3 0.9 5.6 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 11.2 12.3 18.4 148.0 74.6 66.4 1.0 4.3 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 10.4 11.6 17.3 143.0 73.7 64.2 1.3 4.1 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 11.8 14.5 17.7 143.7 75.1 64.8 2.0 5.4 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.1 13.3 16.8 116.6 62.4 55.5 6.5 10.6 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 12.5 17.4 20.2 173.1 80.5 68.6 0.9 4.3 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 10.2 10.6 15.8 130.3 71.5 60.7 1.1 6.4 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.4 10.2 12.9 128.9 68.5 61.1 1.2 3.9 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.0 9.6 15.5 113.2 65.1 55.4 1.5 5.9 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.4 7.9 13.7 129.9 67.5 59.9 3.6 7.1 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 11.3 12.6 23.0 136.7 71.5 62.9 2.4 7.1 10.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 9.9 11.4 16.0 130.1 71.2 60.6 2.9 6.9 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.2 10.4 13.9 130.2 68.9 61.3 1.9 4.8 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.2 10.3 14.5 125.5 66.3 58.4 2.7 7.2 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.6 10.4 15.3 114.2 64.7 54.9 4.2 10.0 10.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 9.6 10.5 18.6 150.3 76.2 66.6 4.3 7.4 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 10.8 14.1 18.2 154.9 76.9 67.6 1.5 4.4 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 9.0 8.8 15.8 137.2 72.4 62.5 2.3 5.7 8.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 12.7 17.4 18.2 155.6 78.8 66.0 0.4 2.3 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.3 13.9 17.0 117.9 66.1 56.9 4.2 7.0 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.1 6.6 13.7 132.9 69.4 60.9 2.8 4.0 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------