***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2020.-03.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 11.4 13.3 10.0 104.7 61.7 59.0 3.9 10.7 14.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 9.5 10.0 9.4 109.3 63.0 59.2 3.7 7.8 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 13.2 13.7 7.8 82.2 54.3 51.7 7.2 12.4 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 12.1 15.3 8.9 84.4 55.6 52.9 6.7 11.1 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 12.0 9.7 7.1 64.4 47.1 43.4 7.3 10.5 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 8.7 7.3 6.0 65.8 49.1 44.2 4.2 7.8 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 10.4 12.6 9.8 117.8 65.5 62.1 3.6 9.1 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.8 13.4 119.5 61.8 57.6 7.3 10.9 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 8.8 7.7 7.6 73.0 52.6 47.2 4.0 7.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.8 9.3 9.1 75.8 49.5 46.6 5.2 9.4 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 5.8 9.0 6.2 58.1 42.2 40.1 8.3 9.9 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 10.1 10.2 10.0 102.3 59.2 54.1 6.9 9.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.6 8.0 5.9 53.7 39.8 36.7 4.5 10.8 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 12.6 11.6 10.2 83.2 55.3 50.2 7.9 10.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 9.7 14.6 10.1 115.3 67.5 62.3 2.0 7.9 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.3 9.6 6.7 67.2 46.6 43.1 5.3 10.0 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 9.5 12.9 9.6 114.9 66.5 60.7 4.1 8.1 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 8.4 8.4 12.4 97.5 57.3 54.4 4.2 7.4 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 8.5 9.7 8.8 100.1 59.4 56.3 4.9 6.9 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 17.5 21.2 25.3 180.7 77.9 72.8 6.8 9.5 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 9.9 9.2 8.0 78.9 54.3 50.3 5.0 9.0 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 7.2 10.3 9.7 109.7 64.3 59.2 3.7 6.0 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 7.8 8.3 8.2 88.3 55.2 52.4 2.5 7.1 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 11.1 9.8 8.9 77.5 52.4 49.1 8.3 9.8 12.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 12.0 12.7 10.3 91.9 57.7 54.4 6.2 11.3 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 7.9 8.1 9.7 94.1 56.7 54.4 5.5 7.3 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 11.2 12.1 10.7 106.1 62.2 59.2 7.1 10.1 13.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 9.1 9.6 7.4 81.8 55.8 51.8 3.4 7.7 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 14.9 16.7 17.0 130.2 67.4 61.9 8.3 13.6 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 7.8 9.5 9.3 105.9 62.3 58.8 3.3 6.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------