***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2020.-24.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 5.5 6.8 7.0 3.2 84.7 80.4 2.9 3.4 5.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 5.0 5.7 6.7 3.0 81.8 78.4 1.6 3.6 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 6.2 7.1 7.4 3.2 83.4 79.0 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 1.5 2.2 4.0 2.7 79.9 75.4 -0.4 0.6 1.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 5.8 7.0 5.8 3.3 84.7 80.4 3.8 4.3 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 5.6 6.2 5.0 3.2 86.1 81.1 3.0 4.1 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 4.7 5.7 6.7 3.0 85.6 80.2 1.4 3.0 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 0.6 1.4 4.9 2.6 79.9 75.7 -1.4 -0.4 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 6.5 7.9 6.6 3.2 83.6 79.3 4.2 5.5 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 5.7 6.6 5.7 2.9 81.4 77.1 3.1 4.6 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 6.1 7.3 6.1 3.3 85.9 80.6 3.8 4.5 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 6.5 7.1 5.5 2.9 83.5 78.3 4.1 5.4 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 5.9 7.3 5.8 3.4 87.1 82.3 3.3 4.3 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 6.8 7.2 6.6 2.7 74.6 73.9 4.0 5.8 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 5.7 6.9 4.9 2.4 78.3 73.7 2.2 3.3 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 6.7 8.3 5.8 3.4 87.6 82.1 4.0 5.3 6.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 4.6 5.2 6.5 2.8 80.5 77.7 1.3 3.1 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 3.5 4.1 5.5 2.7 79.6 75.9 1.7 2.9 3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 5.6 6.2 6.9 3.0 80.7 77.6 2.5 3.8 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 2.9 3.4 3.6 2.3 76.6 73.5 0.7 1.7 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 6.0 7.3 7.2 3.3 84.0 80.0 3.8 5.0 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 5.2 6.0 6.5 2.7 77.1 75.9 2.2 3.7 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 5.2 5.9 7.1 3.0 80.1 76.7 2.6 3.7 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 7.0 7.4 6.6 2.9 79.7 76.2 4.0 6.1 6.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 5.0 6.1 5.8 3.1 83.7 80.0 2.2 3.3 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 5.3 6.1 4.9 2.9 84.7 80.8 3.5 4.2 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 6.0 7.3 6.6 3.2 84.8 80.9 2.8 4.4 5.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 6.3 7.5 4.5 2.6 79.0 74.9 2.9 3.7 6.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 3.5 4.0 4.8 2.6 79.3 75.5 1.4 2.7 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 4.8 5.9 6.8 3.1 83.8 79.2 1.5 3.2 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------