***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2021.-24.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 5.3 5.7 6.2 2.3 69.5 66.6 1.2 2.6 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 4.6 5.4 6.1 2.1 67.9 66.0 1.1 1.8 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 5.9 6.3 6.7 2.3 69.8 66.6 2.1 3.4 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 1.8 2.4 3.9 2.4 70.8 66.3 -2.6 -0.6 1.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 5.5 6.3 5.0 2.4 71.5 66.6 2.9 3.2 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 5.0 5.2 4.6 2.6 72.0 68.0 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 4.6 4.8 6.1 2.1 67.9 66.4 0.7 1.5 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 1.1 0.9 4.8 2.4 71.1 67.0 -2.1 -0.4 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 6.8 7.4 5.9 2.5 71.5 67.0 2.9 4.4 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 5.7 5.5 5.5 2.5 71.4 67.0 2.7 3.7 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 5.5 5.8 5.2 2.5 72.2 67.3 3.1 3.7 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 6.7 6.3 5.1 2.5 71.4 67.6 3.2 4.8 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 5.3 5.4 4.6 2.5 70.5 67.7 3.0 4.4 5.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 6.7 6.2 6.4 2.4 70.9 66.4 2.6 3.3 5.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 5.7 4.9 4.5 2.2 67.9 65.6 0.8 2.9 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 6.1 6.1 4.9 2.5 72.1 67.8 3.7 4.7 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 4.3 4.7 6.1 2.1 67.9 65.9 0.8 1.8 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 4.1 4.4 5.5 2.5 70.2 66.2 1.6 2.9 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 5.1 5.6 6.4 2.2 69.0 65.9 1.2 2.3 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 3.9 3.7 3.5 2.1 68.4 64.9 0.5 2.0 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 5.7 6.4 6.3 2.4 70.7 67.0 2.7 3.5 6.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 5.4 5.3 6.3 2.1 68.8 65.7 1.6 2.3 4.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 4.8 4.6 6.8 2.3 70.5 66.0 1.3 2.1 4.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 5.9 6.3 6.3 2.4 70.2 66.5 2.6 4.1 6.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 4.4 4.7 4.9 2.3 70.9 66.9 1.3 2.7 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 5.0 5.1 4.3 2.3 69.7 68.5 3.2 4.3 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 5.8 5.8 5.8 2.3 70.2 67.0 1.4 3.7 5.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 6.6 6.5 4.4 2.5 70.9 66.6 1.8 3.5 5.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 4.3 4.8 4.9 2.3 69.0 65.8 0.3 2.7 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 4.6 5.3 6.1 2.1 68.2 66.1 0.7 1.6 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------