***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2021.-17.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 4.3 4.7 5.3 1.9 60.8 61.9 2.0 3.7 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 4.0 4.4 5.1 1.8 59.7 61.1 1.0 3.5 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 5.1 5.3 5.6 1.8 60.5 61.5 1.9 4.4 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 0.5 1.3 2.9 1.8 62.2 61.5 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 4.6 5.1 3.9 1.8 61.2 61.3 2.1 3.9 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 5.2 5.0 3.4 1.8 58.6 60.3 2.3 4.7 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 3.3 4.0 5.1 1.8 60.9 61.3 0.9 2.8 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 1.1 1.3 3.5 1.5 59.3 58.9 -1.6 0.7 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 5.5 5.6 4.7 1.7 59.9 60.7 2.5 4.8 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 4.7 4.6 4.1 1.6 59.9 59.7 2.0 4.1 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 4.9 5.3 4.0 1.8 60.7 61.2 2.0 4.1 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 4.9 5.6 3.8 1.6 59.8 59.9 3.3 4.1 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 5.0 5.3 3.4 1.7 62.2 61.0 2.2 4.4 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 5.7 5.7 5.0 1.6 59.1 59.7 2.8 4.7 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 4.7 5.1 3.6 1.7 60.1 61.3 2.2 4.2 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 5.4 6.1 3.7 1.8 62.8 61.7 2.8 4.7 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 3.1 4.3 5.1 1.7 59.8 60.8 0.7 2.5 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 2.5 2.7 4.1 1.6 59.1 59.0 0.7 2.0 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 4.2 4.5 5.3 1.8 59.6 61.3 0.9 3.6 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 1.6 1.3 2.3 1.3 56.4 57.0 -0.1 1.0 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 4.8 5.5 5.2 1.8 60.6 61.2 1.9 4.1 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 3.9 5.1 5.1 1.6 59.7 60.7 0.8 3.4 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 3.6 5.0 5.7 1.8 60.2 61.2 1.3 2.8 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 5.8 5.8 4.9 1.6 59.6 59.9 2.7 4.9 7.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 3.8 4.0 4.0 1.8 61.5 61.4 2.1 3.3 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 4.7 5.7 3.3 1.7 63.1 61.6 2.2 4.1 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 4.2 4.5 4.8 1.9 61.2 61.7 2.1 3.6 5.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 5.0 6.3 3.3 1.8 60.9 61.5 2.7 4.4 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 3.2 3.5 3.5 1.5 58.9 58.3 -0.3 2.6 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 3.9 4.2 5.1 1.8 59.9 61.3 0.8 3.4 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------