***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2021.-10.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 8.1 10.3 7.2 3.5 79.5 75.7 0.1 3.2 6.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 7.2 8.4 6.9 3.2 75.9 73.2 0.3 2.7 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 9.0 10.9 7.5 3.4 77.4 73.7 2.7 4.2 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 3.6 4.8 4.0 2.8 72.2 70.2 -2.0 0.4 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 7.3 8.3 6.0 3.4 75.7 74.5 1.8 4.1 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 7.3 8.1 5.2 3.4 76.2 75.2 1.2 4.7 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 6.4 8.2 6.9 3.4 78.6 75.4 0.0 3.0 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 1.5 1.6 5.2 3.0 72.3 71.7 -2.0 -0.5 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 8.7 10.0 6.8 3.4 75.5 74.0 2.7 4.8 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 7.1 7.3 6.0 3.3 73.0 72.7 1.5 3.8 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 7.9 9.1 6.6 3.6 76.4 75.7 1.8 4.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 8.7 9.4 5.8 3.2 74.8 74.2 1.8 5.7 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 8.2 9.5 6.4 3.8 79.6 77.2 1.4 4.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 8.9 9.8 6.9 3.0 71.5 69.0 2.2 4.9 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 6.4 7.8 5.2 2.6 73.1 70.5 1.1 2.9 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 8.8 10.6 6.2 3.8 79.5 76.8 2.4 5.6 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 6.1 7.1 6.5 3.0 75.1 71.5 0.0 2.7 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 4.0 4.2 5.7 3.1 72.9 70.7 0.4 2.6 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 8.3 9.8 7.0 3.2 75.3 72.5 0.9 2.9 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 4.1 4.0 4.0 2.6 69.6 68.8 -0.9 1.9 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 8.7 10.5 7.4 3.4 77.1 74.2 2.4 4.5 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 6.9 7.8 6.5 2.8 73.3 69.8 0.2 2.8 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 6.9 7.7 7.2 3.2 75.1 71.8 1.7 3.1 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 9.2 10.7 6.9 3.2 74.2 70.8 3.0 5.3 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 6.4 7.9 6.2 3.4 77.9 74.9 1.2 3.5 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 6.9 8.3 5.3 3.3 77.9 76.6 2.9 4.0 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 8.5 10.4 6.9 3.6 80.4 76.4 2.3 4.5 7.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 7.1 8.6 4.7 2.8 72.3 69.9 1.4 3.0 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 5.5 5.9 5.1 2.9 72.0 70.5 0.8 2.9 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 7.3 8.5 7.0 3.4 77.6 74.5 0.4 3.2 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------